Good morning, it’s Amy in Melbourne with your Tuesday newsletter. 

Today’s must-reads:
• Our so-called “miracle economy” faces headwinds 
• Our AAA sovereign credit rating may be at risk, S&P warns 
• Lynas Rare Earths in talks with Trump administration 

What's happening now

We’re counting down to election day, and whoever wins will face a challenging reality: our living standards are slipping backwards. My colleagues Swati Pandey and Ben Westcott have taken a close look at Australia’s economy as we head towards polling day. We’re not the only ones going to the polls — Singapore also has a general election this weekend, while millions of Canadians voted in their own election this week.   

Meanwhile, Australia’s AAA sovereign credit rating may be at risk. That’s according to S&P Global Ratings, with the firm warning election campaign pledges could result in larger structural deficits, debt and interest costs.

The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. processing plant in Kalgoorlie. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

Lynas Rare Earths — which is backed by Australia’s richest person Gina Rinehart — is in talks with the Trump administration to counter rising costs for the refinery it’s building in Texas. Pre-construction activities are underway, additional expenses are needed to mitigate wastewater challenges, the company said. 

In other resources news, Woodside Energy Group is in talks with the overseas unit of Kuwait Petroleum to sell a stake in its proposed liquefied natural gas export project in the US, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

US stocks edged higher as investors await earnings reports from some of the big tech companies. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to leave the ball squarely in China’s court for a tariff de-escalation saw the dollar sold off. That worked a treat for the Aussie dollar which rose ahead of possible input from the Reserve Bank around noon today at Bloomberg’s Sydney office. The Kiwi dragged the chain a little, in light of budget belt tightening outlined by New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis. Rates and FX markets will be on edge to see how China returns serve.

China has declared sovereignty over an uninhabited reef in the South China Sea, state media said. It sets the stage for an escalation of tensions with the Philippines over the disputed area. Pakistan, meanwhile, warned of the possibility of war with India but said it can be averted. Tensions have risen after militant attacks in the northern region of Kashmir killed 26 people.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a new temporary ceasefire in his war on Ukraine to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. The move has drawn criticism from the US as it tries to negotiate a peace deal.

Europe’s worst blackout in more than a decade extended into Monday evening across much of Spain and Portugal, even as Spain’s grid operator gradually restored power to parts of the country. The sudden blackout disrupted public transit, phone services and airports. 

A metro station closed due to a major blackout in Lisbon, Portugal, on Monday. Photographer: Zed Jameson/Bloomberg

Thailand is rolling out a new digital arrival card for foreign travelers. The arrival cards will be synced with Thai immigration bureau’s biometric database to allow for screening of criminal backgrounds of visitors. 

A new atomic arms race is stirring in Asia, writes Bloomberg Opinion’s Karishma Vaswani. For decades, Asian nations have relied on Washington’s commitment to deterrence but that’s no longer guaranteed, Vaswani says.

What to watch

• 12:05 p.m. — RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent speaks at a Bloomberg event in Sydney 
• No major earnings are scheduled. Fortescue, Northern Star and Mineral Resources are among companies reporting quarterly updates. 

One more thing...

It’s certainly been a whirlwind since Donald Trump was elected to lead the US for a second time. Trump has put his signature on a dizzying number of executive orders. The breakneck speed is one of the administration’s most effective tools and most glaring vulnerabilities, Bloomberg reports. Have a great day. 

US President Donald Trump on the South Lawn of the White House on Sunday. Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA