What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrencies fell slightly in the past 24 hours, with the broad market CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropping 1.4%. Bitcoin (BTC) is little changed around $95,000. These figures are well within recently volatility ranges and come on the back of a strong monthly performance — BTC is on track to rise 15% in April, the most since November.

The market has been grappling with growing pessimism surrounding the potential impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on nearly every country and optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than expected.

Stock prices have rallied over the past week on expectations Trump would lower the tariffs and the continuation of interest-rate cuts, according to Spanish bank Bankinter.

“Yet the perspective could turn for the worse from today, applying the logic of the data, because — regardless of tariffs and rate cuts — part of the damage has already been done, chiefly to confidence, which is the market’s foundation,” the bank wrote in a note.

Indeed, various major companies, including P&G, UPS, PepsiCo, American Airlines and GM, have lowered or pulled their earnings forecasts. Bankinter pointed out that French first-quarter GDP data released today showed a quarter-on-quarter increase that was entirely inventory-driven, while consumption, investment, and exports are weakening.

That bodes poorly for the U.S. figure, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Some market observers, including Bankinter, suggest it could contract sharply. Bitcoin’s rise so far this year, contrasting with the stock market’s worst 100 days of a presidential administration since 1974, could be further evidence the cryptocurrency is starting to be used as a hedge.

As mentioned earlier in the week, Greg Cipolaro, the global head of research at NYDIG, wrote in a note that BTC has been acting “more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is.”

Bitcoin has decoupled from U.S. equities after the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated and has been seeing bets on it rise. This month, spot bitcoin ETFs posted monthly total net inflows of little over $3 billion according to SoSoValue data, further pointing to a flight to the cryptocurrency space amid the uncertainty. Stay alert!

Crypto:

• April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares will debut three ETFs that will provide leveraged and inverse exposure to XRP: the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, the ProShares Short XRP ETF and the ProShares UltraShort XRP ETF.
• April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
• May 1: Coinbase Asset Management will introduce the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund (CBYF), which is aimed at non-U.S. investors.
• May 1: Hippo Protocol starts up its own layer-1 blockchain mainnet built on Cosmos SDK and completes a migration from Ethereum’s ERC-20 HPO token to its native HP token, enabling staking and governance.
• May 1, 9 a.m.: Constellation Network (DAG) activates the Tessellation v3 upgrade on its mainnet, introducing delegated staking, node collateral, token locking and new transaction types to enhance network security, scalability and functionality.
• May 1, 11 a.m.: THORChain activates its v3.5 mainnet upgrade, adding the TCY token to convert $200 million in debt into equity. TCY holders earn 10% of network revenue, while native RUNE remains the protocol’s security and governance token. TCY activates May 5.
• May 5, 3 a.m.: IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade starts. Rebased moves IOTA to a new network, boosting capacity to as many as 50,000 transactions per second, offering staking rewards of 10%-15% a year and adding support for MoveVM smart contracts.
• May 5, 10 a.m.: The Crescendo network upgrade goes live on the Kaspa (KAS) mainnet. This upgrade boosts the network’s performance by increasing the block production rate to 10 blocks per second from 1 block per second.

Macro

• April 30, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases March unemployment rate data.
  • Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.8%
• April 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (preliminary) Q1 GDP growth data.
  • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. -0.6%
  • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 0.5%
• April 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (advance) Q1 GDP growth data.
  • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 2.4%
• April 30, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases March consumer income and expenditure data.
  • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.4%
  • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%
  • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.5%
  • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.8%
  • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 0.4%
• May 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 26.
  • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 224K vs. Prev. 222K
• May 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases Canada April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
  • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
• May 1, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases U.S. April economic activity data.
  • Manufacturing PMI Est. 48 vs. Prev. 49

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.33
• May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.97
• May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.02
• May 1: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.23
• May 1: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, $-0.11
• May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $2.08
• May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market
• May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market

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By Shaurya Malwa