This latest wave of corporate earnings has failed to lift the uncertainty shrouding markets while a lack of guidance and substantial economic data have increased anxiety around stocks—but somehow the recovery is still plodding along.
The
cohort of companies pulling or suspending guidance is growing–General Motors, JetBlue Airways and United Parcel Servicejoined the ranks Tuesday, while European car makers Stellantis and Mercedes did the same early Wednesday.
But investors already know companies have no clue about what’s going to happen. The stock market was therefore able to ignore the lack of visibility as the S&P 500 notched its sixth consecutive daily gain. It’s up 7.8% in that time, the index’s
biggest six-day jump since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Mounting evidence that President Donald Trump is willing to scale back tariffs is helping, too.
Trade developments will likely continue to dictate the direction of travel for stocks, unless tech giants Meta and Microsoft spring a surprise or two after the bell.
The market is also
shrugging off economic data, at least for now. That’s partly because much of it is coming from surveys or sentiment indicators. Consumer confidence fell again in April with the expectations index plunging to its lowest level since October 2011. China’s export orders slumped during the month according to data Wednesday. But again that was in the form of a survey, rather than hard data.
Tangible real-world impacts have been more elusive, showing up in pockets of the economy including domestic air travel and Las Vegas gaming revenue. The tariffs effect is taking
hold, though–the U.S. trade deficit rose to a record high in March, suggesting companies are importing goods to get ahead of levies. That skews first-quarter GDP data.
However, the market’s indifference to the
data could change with Friday’s jobs report if it shows an impact on hiring. The economic fallout is coming, it’s just a matter of when and how bad it proves to be.
—Callum Keown
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Trump Touts Economic Agenda. Americans Are Liking It Less.
President Donald Trump spent the first 100 days of his second term doing exactly what he promised, and now that threatens his economic agenda. It’s a corner that will be difficult for the president to punch his way out of, but he told a rally Tuesday “you haven’t seen anything yet.”
- Trump’s first few months back in office have been hyperactive. So far, he has signed 142 executive orders, the most of any president in that period. By comparison, former President Joe Biden signed 162 orders in his entire term, according to the American Presidency Project at UC-Santa Barbara.
- At the Michigan rally, held to celebrate the 100-day milestone, Trump boasted about deportations and his success curtailing border crossings, his efforts to slash the federal government, and the falling prices of household staples such as eggs and gasoline. The more Trump does, the less some Americans seem to like it.
- Take tariffs. In January, the share of people who liked Trump’s economic performance was 8 percentage points higher than those who disapproved. By April, after announcing and then partially delaying the heaviest tariffs since the Great Depression, that had swung to a net negative job approval rating of 14 points.
- Trump started his term with a net neutral rating on trade and inflation. Now he is underwater by 20.5 and 22.6 points, respectively. The White House says everything is going according to plan. On Tuesday, Trump gave auto makers a break on his tariffs on auto parts.
What’s Next: The changes include offsets for tariffs on auto parts for companies that make cars in the U.S. Trump called his tariffs “genius” and said China wants to make a deal, without offering specifics. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he expects to announce preliminary deals with some trading partners soon.
—Joe Light, Emily Russell, and Liz Moyer
Chinese Exports Show Impact of U.S Trade War
China’s export orders plunged in April to the lowest level since 2022, a survey of purchasing
managers showed. It’s an early sign of the impact of U.S. tariffs popping up in hard data for the world’s second-biggest economy.
- Overall
manufacturing activity was the lowest in more than a year, according to the figures, which are seen as a reliable early indicator of economic growth.
- The data come after U.S. consumer confidence plunged last month. Confidence isn’t as hard an indicator as PMI surveys, but it doesn’t bode well for those worried that a
recession is likely later this year.
- Meanwhile, a raft of European companies warned that the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are making their guidance unreliable. Stellantis, which owns the Dodge, Ram, and Chrysler brands, reported a steep drop in shipments and revenue in the first quarter. Volkswagen, the biggest car maker on the continent, and Mercedes-Benz said they expect a material impact from levies on their sales.
What’s Next: It’s clear that companies are bracing for a hit that hasn’t quite arrived yet. Signs of pain from the trade war are testing Trump’s campaign promises that tariffs would be good for the economy, although he did warn Tuesday there would be a tough “transition period.”
—Brian Swint
Pfizer Keeps 2025 Guidance as CEO Cautiously Optimistic on Levies
Pfizer maintained its outlook after beating expectations on first quarter profit, but it hasn’t included any potential fallout from the sector tariffs President Trump threatened to impose on drug imports. Pfizer plans to cut another $1.2 billion in costs by the end of 2027 on top of $4.5 billion in previously announced cuts.
- Pfizer CFO David Denton said if it is affected by future tariffs, it will assess the impact and provide more information then. He said Pfizer has explored making certain drug ingredients and certain products in the U.S. Tariffs already in place are expected to cost $150 million this year, he added.
- CEO Albert Bourla said they had been in contact with administration officials about anticipated tariffs on pharmaceutical imports and he expects them to be focused on a “manageable number of products” chosen for national security reasons, suggesting any tariffs might not be as broad as feared. He said he was cautiously optimistic.
- First-quarter adjusted earnings of 92 cents a share beat expectations but revenue of $13.7 billion fell nearly 8% from a year ago and missed expectations. Pfizer maintained its full-year guidance for revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion, and adjusted earnings of $2.80 to $3 a share.
- Bourla also said Pfizer’s decision to stop developing its oral weight loss drug over concerns about liver damage risks was the right decision for the company. He said Pfizer will continue building its obesity pipeline internally and through partnerships or acquisitions.
What’s Next: Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk
struck an agreement with telehealth companies Hims & Hers, <
