Dear RealEcon readers,
No sooner had the annual crowds of cherry-blossom viewers departed Washington, DC, than two new groups of visitors descended on the nation’s capital this month. The first wave included delegations of trade officials from the dozens of countries seeking bilateral deals to head off President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 and paused for ninety days a week later. Major Asian countries—including India, Japan, and South Korea—seem to be first in the queue, but the prospects for quick deals before the July deadline remain uncertain.
Speaking of uncertainty, that was the mood that hung over the second group of visitors to Washington: finance officials from around the world attending the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The IMF significantly cut its forecast for real global growth in 2025 from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent, citing the uncertainty around tariffs as the proximate cause. Worries about U.S. debt and the dollar also made for a somber Spring Meetings week.
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) continues to explore those dramatic developments through its meetings and analysis. Featured in this edition of RealEcon are articles by CFR President Michael Froman and several Greenberg Center fellows, a striking visualization of the downstream effects of tariffs on shoes, and our Why It Matters podcast focused on tariffs. You can also find below links to videos of the various events CFR hosted in connection with the IMF and World Bank meetings.
Thank you for your interest in the RealEcon Initiative. I value your feedback on this newsletter and your ideas for how the initiative can have more impact.
—Matthew P. Goodman, Director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Director of the CFR RealEcon Initiative
