| On the 101st day of Donald Trump’s second term as president came news that the US economy shrank during the first quarter. Perhaps it’s not surprising then that polling shows his support is contracting as well. Joshua Green explains how the two are connected. Plus: The Elon, Inc. podcast reviews Elon Musk’s 100 days in government. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. Donald Trump rode back into office on expectations that he’d turbocharge the American economy. Polls showed voters were sick of inflation, nostalgic for the economy of Trump’s first term and willing to overlook doubts about his character and temperament because they liked his promise to bring down prices “on Day 1” and spark an economic “boom like no other.” With the first 100 days of Trump’s term now in the books, however, many Americans are experiencing buyer’s remorse. Much of their dissatisfaction is rooted in frustration with what was supposed to be Trump’s great strength: managing the economy. At a rally on Tuesday night in Michigan, Trump characteristically sought to paint a much rosier picture, declaring his early tenure “the most successful first 100 days of any administration in the history of our country.” But a flood of recent economic and polling data suggests Trump and Republicans face serious political jeopardy if they don’t turn things around soon.  Trump arrives on Tuesday at Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Michigan, where he addressed troops before holding a rally to mark 100 days in office. Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty Images North America To begin with, the Day 1 revival that Trump promised voters didn’t happen. Instead, they got a trade war that’s shaken the foundations of the global economy. Prices haven’t fallen, as Trump claimed they would. But equity markets have dropped sharply. So has the overall US economic outlook. And supply shortages could soon hit US retailers, because cargo shipments have plummeted in response to 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. Instead of animal spirits fueling a “Trump boom,” as many forecasters had predicted, the president’s haphazard imposition of steep tariffs on enemies and allies alike has caused recession fears to rear up, as trade partners retaliate with levies of their own and businesses freeze investments and cut earnings outlooks. “America is a brand,” hedge fund magnate and Trump supporter Ken Griffin complained last week, and “we are eroding that brand.” Voters are paying close attention to Trump’s actions and responding with historic levels of alarm. Consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan’s survey plunged after he announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2. The percentage of Americans who expect unemployment to rise is now higher than at any point since the Great Recession. Inflation expectations have skyrocketed too. The University of Michigan survey found that Americans now expect prices to rise at a 6.5% rate over the next year—almost triple the 2.4% the federal government reported in March, and the highest year-ahead expectation since 1981, according to the survey. Perhaps most problematic from a political standpoint, a growing number of Americans say they expect the financial pain to hit them personally. For the first time this century, a Gallup Poll found that a majority—53%—say their personal finances are getting worse. The collapsing faith that Trump will improve economic conditions could spell serious trouble for him and Republicans. After all, polling in last fall’s presidential race showed that among voters who viewed the economy negatively, a staggering 69% backed Trump. With so many measures of economic sentiment cratering, what are those voters thinking now?  A projection displays rising consumer costs and Trump’s approval rating in front of the White House on Tuesday. Photographer: Jemal Countess/Getty Images North America Yet this hasn’t triggered the kind of concern among Republicans that some political professionals think it should. “Trump’s numbers on the economy have been the bedrock of his support throughout his political career,” says Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and partner at Firehouse Strategies. “Now, for the first time we’re seeing erosion because of the tariffs. That’s a huge political problem if it continues—if we go into midterms with voters having lost trust in his ability to handle the economy, we’re going to lose in places that haven’t been competitive for a decade.” Last weekend, Republicans and Trump fans gathered at parties across Washington that spun off from Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Guests at the MAGA parties I attended mostly shrugged off concerns about Trump’s standing. Some expect his top legislative priority—a $4.5 trillion tax cut—to turn things around for him. Others, such as Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell, claim that polls showing Trump’s support eroding are merely a liberal “psyop.” But there’s overwhelming evidence that Trump’s standing is indeed slipping significantly. The latest ABC News-Washington Post poll pegs his job approval rating at just 39%, the lowest of any president at the 100-day mark in 80 years. The Associated Press poll also has Trump deeply underwater, with a 39%-59% approval-disapproval disparity. For Republicans who don’t buy the president’s claim that pollsters are afflicted with “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” there’s a deeper concern: his growing weakness among voter groups he’d only recently started to win over. Among Hispanics—the fastest-growing bloc of GOP support—a poll by the Pew Research Center shows Trump with an approval rating of just 27%, while 72% disapprove (down from 36% approve, 62% disapprove on Feb. 2). Among young men, who flocked to him last fall, Trump’s approval in the latest Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll sits at 34%, with 59% disapproving. Much of the dissatisfaction is tied to Trump’s handling of the economy. In January, 62% of young men in the Harvard poll approved of his stewardship. Today, they’re losing faith. Only 19% believe the economy is headed in the right direction, and 66% of those in college expect to have a difficult time finding a job after graduation. As Democrats learned the hard way, these critical voting groups are highly sensitive to economic pressures—from gas prices to grocery bills to mortgage rates—and can decisively swing an election. They shifted right during the high-inflation years of the Biden administration. Now, just 100 days into Trump’s second term, they’re delivering a clear warning: Unless economic conditions improve, they’re likely to swing back left. Related: US Economy Contracts for First Time Since 2022 on Imports Surge Explainer: Why Did the US Economy Shrink in Early 2025? | 
