| The first economic scorecard at the start of Donald Trump’s second term is out and the headline number was not good. It showed the nation’s gross domestic product shrank 0.3% at an annualized rate during the first three months of the year. Trump has been warning for weeks that there may be some pain before his policies juice the economy. But in the immediate aftermath of the data’s release the president took to his Truth Social platform to blame his predecessor, Joe Biden. Then, during a cabinet meeting later, he said voters should “give us a pass.” (Back in February, when the S&P 500 was at a post-election high, he was taking credit for bringing America’s economic engines “roaring back to life.”)  Trump meets with his cabinet. Photographer: Ken Cedeno/UPI Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette and Gregory Korte have a full rundown of where things stand with, Trump’s Economy: Charting His First 100 Days Back in Office As members of the administration rightly pointed out, there were some decent numbers elsewhere in the data. Consumer spending was up 1.8% and business equipment purchases grew the fastest since 2020. A separate report showed inflation slowed down in March. But, oh, that headline. Trump’s reaction was an indicator of the political risk for him at a time when surveys and polls show consumers and businesses are worried that tariffs are going to slow the economy and raise prices. This “has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS,” Trump posted on social media. In fact, tariffs were a big reason the economy contracted in the first quarter. There was a huge surge of imports as companies stocked up before the brunt of Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties kicked in. Imports count against the GDP, because what’s measured is the value of goods and services produced domestically. Read: Why Did the US Economy Shrink in Early 2025?: QuickTake The extra inventory will help future GDP growth as US businesses sell it off. Trump also points to the tax cuts being debated in Congress and his administration’s dismantling of regulations as additional drivers of growth. Still, Tariffs will still have an impact going forward. Even though Trump has dialed back or paused some of the most punitive duties he’s announced – except on China — the country’s effective tariff rate now stands at almost 23%, according to Bloomberg Economics. Recession risks have been building and economists surveyed by Bloomberg now see a 45% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months. By that time, there will be little doubt about who owns it. — Joe Sobczyk Executive orders. Trade wars. Elon Musk and DOGE. Donald Trump’s second term has been nothing short of eventful. Bloomberg reporters recap Trump’s first 100 days in a Live Q&A on May 1 at 11 a.m. EDT. Tune in here. | 
