The US famously bounced back from a pandemic recession that struck like a hammer blow in 2020. Fueled by a massive government rescue effort that pumped tremendous amounts of money into the economy, the nation was soon outpacing rivals in a return to growth. The country that saw more than a million people killed by Covid-19 not only avoided a depression, but eventually reached a level of employment so high it matched a half century-old record from when Richard Nixon was president. But that was then. For Donald Trump, it’s not Nixon but Gerald Ford that comes to mind this week. The president closes out his first 100 days in office able to claim almost-singlehanded responsibility for sending the S&P 500 Index down about 8%. It’s the worst first 100 days for markets since 1974, when Ford took over for his disgraced predecessor. And it gets worse. Unlike the churning US economy of the last half of the Biden administration, Trump now presides over the first US economic contraction since 2022. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years. The uncertainty over Trump’s chaotic tariff strategy, his radical push to deport undocumented workers, legal immigrants and foreign students, his mass firings of federal employees and a sometimes overt disdain for the US Constitution have all unnerved investors who a few short months ago were singing his praises. It’s all combined to send the S&P 500 diving into its seventh-fastest correction since 1929. There was however some good news for Trump in today’s hard data, with consumer spending advancing more than economists had predicted. But that comes amid a parade of consumer sentiment surveys—including one yesterday—showing optimism nowhere to be found. Low-income Americans are already facing the hardship of high prices while wealthier individuals have been set back by this year’s drop in stock prices. And a closely watched measure of underlying inflation accelerated to a 3.5% pace in the first quarter—the most in a year. —David E. Rovella Executive orders. Trade wars. Elon Musk and DOGE. Donald Trump's second term has been nothing short of eventful. Bloomberg reporters recap his first 100 days in a Live Q&A on May 1 at 11 a.m. EDT. Tune in here. |