Good morning, it’s Angus here in Sydney. Here’s what you need to know as we head toward the election weekend in Australia.

Today’s must-reads:
• An investor’s guide to the election
• Betting giants notch up win
• Home prices reach fresh record

What's happening now

Here's our investor’s guide to navigating Australia's election. The Bloomberg Australia newsroom will be blogging all the breaking news on election night, including a live results tracker, and delivering global context to the country’s biggest night of the year. You can follow along this Saturday, May 3, from 6 p.m. Australian Eastern Standard Time.

Australian home prices climbed for a third straight month to a record ahead of Saturday’s election, while defying rising uncertainty over the economic fallout from US-driven global trade turmoil. The Home Value Index advanced 0.2% in April, with every major city recording a rise, said property consultancy Cotality. 

Tougher rules that were meant to shield problem gamblers from companies like Bet365 Group Ltd. and other industry giants were scrapped at the last minute by Australia’s main online gambling regulator, documents show, a decision that adds to allegations of inadequate oversight in the world’s most prolific betting market.

Australia’s core inflation came in hotter than expected in the first three months, damping expectations of a rapid series of interest-rate cuts this year just days out from an election. The closely-watched trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices advanced 0.7% in the first quarter, from 0.5% three months earlier and compared with an expected 0.6% gain. 

US President Donald Trump flagged possible talks with Australia to discuss tariffs he imposed on the ally, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said there were “opportunities” for his country arising from America’s trade war. When asked by a reporter whether he planned to hold talks with Albanese on the US import levies, Trump responded: “They are calling, and I will be talking to him, yes.” 

Can Australia’s next government fix its economy? A housing crisis, high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have all contributed to a perfect storm of economic headwinds before the May 3 election. Click on the icon below for a recording of yesterday’s Live Q&A featuring Bloomberg’s Haidi Stroud-Watts and Michael Heath, who discuss the main parties' economic proposals.

The chief investment officer of Cbus, one of Australia’s largest pension funds, is leaving after two years in the role. Brett Chatfield, who was appointed CIO in 2023 after a decade at the A$100 billion ($64 billion) fund, will be succeeded by his deputy Leigh Gavin. Chatfield will perform the same role at a large private family office after handing over to Gavin.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague, market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

US Treasury yields fell after data show America’s economy contracted for the first time since 2022. Stocks erased steep losses after separate data showed consumer spending jumped and also on a report that the US has reached out to China for trade talks. Oil plunged after Saudi Arabia said it can endure lower prices. Local Aussie trade data probably won’t move the dial given most of Asia is on holiday today, except for Japan which has a Bank of Japan interest rate decision that could well impact the yen against AUD and NZD.

More on the US economic contraction: Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years. It fell on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from Trump’s trade policy.

The US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to Ukraine’s natural resources, according to a person familiar with the accord, a move that Kyiv sought to solidify Trump’s backing in ceasefire talks with Russia. 

The US meanwhile urged India and Pakistan to work together to de-escalate tensions and avoid an expected clash, after militants last week killed dozens of people in the Indian-controlled portion of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with top officials from both countries on Wednesday, asking them to “maintain peace and security in South Asia.” 

Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius is keeping the bulk of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty, which is likely to persist for up to six months. “At this stage, cash is king. So 95% of my money in the funds are in cash,” Mobius said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

What to watch

• Rio Tinto holds its annual general meeting at 9:30 a.m. (Perth time)
• Australia’s statistics bureau releases March trade data at 11:30 a.m. (Sydney)

One more thing...

Elon Musk is adding a Texas city to his empire. His rocket company SpaceX is likely to incorporate a new city, Starbase, near its launch site, giving the company control over zoning, development, and other aspects of life in the area. Read the Big Take here.