| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a salubrious gut check of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Where Will It Hurt the Most? | In the titanic struggle to defeat the Axis, Winston Churchill championed a military strategy aimed at the “soft underbelly” of Hitler’s league of fascist regimes. Specifically, that was Italy, where the British prime minister believed resistance to an invasion would quickly give way and allow the US, Britain and their allies to cut right through the middle of Nazi-dominated Europe. Trade wars don’t initially involve armies (and I sure hope this one won’t). But, even as Beijing and Washington declare staunch resistance to each other, they may expose soft underbellies in their economies. In this case, they are sectoral, not geographical. In her column, Shuli Ren says that — while China’s tech industry and even real estate are hanging strong — blue-collar workers are worried. “A decline in exports, until now a rare bright spot in an otherwise anemic economy, will only create more competition for low-skilled jobs. Already, demand for their labor is diminishing due to factory automation and the end of a decade-long property boom.” Shuli adds: “What these displaced might do next matters to the rest of the 425-million-strong blue-collar workforce.” The trade war, she says, “only exacerbates a separation of the elite from the grassroots.” The discontent could trigger unrest.  In the US, Thomas Black says, “Donald Trump took aim at China with his cannon shot of 145% tariffs and ended up with a direct hit on US small businesses.” Citing United Parcel Service Inc.’s chief executive officer Carol Tomé, Thomas says the many small businesses who rely on China for their imported e-commerce inventory don’t have the finances to “weather the storm” of the dramatic tariff hikes. “The unintended consequences of Trump’s trade war will be vast, but you can bet that mom-and-pop businesses will be hit the hardest.” Churchill — as history showed — was wrong about his European weak spot. Hitler sent in troops to hold off the Allies, who then had to stage the D-Day invasion of Normandy the next year that would help bring about the fall of the Nazis. But Europe as a whole may be a target of opportunity for China. Says Lionel Laurent: “With the US now raising the drawbridge against cheap Chinese goods, Europe will be an even more vital market” for “Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Shein and PDD Holding Inc.’s Temu” whose business model is “hooking consumers with rock-bottom prices.” Lionel says the EU has options to resist, but “what it lacks is the will and a clear strategy.” Maybe Churchill will be proven right — nearly a century late and with a trade war, not a hot one. But… Trade Might Still Go Kaboom | Trump’s upending of the global status quo might lead to the revival of a nightmare: the imminence of nuclear war. As part of his trade-led reformulation of international relations, the US president says his country is tired of footing the bill for the so-called nuclear umbrella that protects Japan, South Korea and Europe from their enemies. But the 80th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is an ominous time to bring up the subject. So much security is guaranteed by American military might. Karishma Vaswani says it was US power — and guilt over the atomic holocausts in Japan — that helped keep nuclear genies in their bottles. Today, these most lethal of arsenals are limited to basically two handfuls of nations. We may be on the verge of an era of proliferation. Both Seoul and Tokyo seem to be pondering nuclear armaments to offset a US security vacuum. Meanwhile, two other nuclear powers have been on the edge of war, says Karishma, “after a terrorist attack in Kashmir killed dozens in some of the region’s worst violence in years. So far, they have stuck to diplomatic measures as retaliation, but there is always the concern of escalation.” She says, “The world once looked to Washington to keep it safe. In 2025, that trust is fraying. It’s in America’s interest — not just Asia’s — to rebuild it.” “From the breathless headlines emerging from China’s electric-vehicle industry in recent months, you’d think the laws of physics are different on the two sides of the Pacific. … Non-Chinese EV and battery companies are probably tempted to give up ... [b]efore they do, though, it’s worth reflecting on the hype cycle. … You might think Chinese cars can go further because of unique innovations, but the explanation is more humdrum. In most cases, it comes from offering oversized battery packs in long-range variants, even if most drivers stick to the more limited base models.” — David Fickling in “Silicon Valley’s Hype Cycle Is Taking Off in China.”  “[T]he judgments of society’s more seasoned members about their juniors should be treated with caution. ... Nevertheless, it is clear that something alarming is going on with many of Britain’s younger people — specifically Generation Z, the group born between 1997 and about 2012. … Britain’s Gen Z isn’t the first generation in history to drop out. It isn’t even the first this decade. Resistance to work echoes the ‘lying flat’ movement that came to prominence in China in mid-2021. … When confronted with a rigged game, there may be some comfort in thinking that you can’t lose if you don’t play.” — Matthew Brooker in “Britain’s Gen Zers Aren’t Lost — Yet.” Zelenskiy’s art of the deal — Marc Champion The not-ready-for-peace-time players. — Bloomberg Editorial Board Can Elliott save a stagnant boardroom? — Chris Hughes The Bank of Japan paints itself into a corner. — Gearoid Reidy Starbucks needs a fresh jolt. — Andrea Felsted The posh victims of deglobalization. — Chris Bryant The Saudis want sell cheaper oil… Huh? — Javier Blas The banks doing well under Trump. — Paul J. Davies Walk of the Town: Empty Chairs and Empty Tables | When I moved to London seven years ago, I’d almost always get the same question: “You’re at Bloomberg? Do you know Richard Vines?” Even financial types who said they were really interested in the subscription-only wonders of the Bloomberg terminal would eventually get around to him. Richard was our senior food and restaurant critic for 18 years and, beyond the man whose name is on the door, he was the person at the company most likely to be recognized by the wider world — especially within the food and restaurant culture of London. His dapper, bright, pastel outfits made him an unmistakable presence at a posh dining table or simply crossing the street as he set off for a reservation.  Richard Vines (right) with his great friend, the chef Pierre Koffman, in a painting by Carl Randall at Bob Bob Ricard City in London. The Barbican is in the background. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg I can still hear him telling me about the two or three restaurants on his schedule when I ran into him one recent Saturday near the Barbican, where we both have apartments. He had left Bloomberg by then but still had his antennae out throughout the foodie universe. Indeed, it was an open question from a retired Richard — who loved to tweet when tweeting was still respectable — that kicked up a ruckus about solo dining in London in 2023. A restaurant had described its new reservation policy to him, and he realized it could well force a solo diner to pay double — that is, for a table for two — in order to snag a reservation. It was just like him to come up with scoops and titillating tidbits. While he loved his caviar and champagne, his best stories had solid journalistic cores — he was, after all, a business reporter. He knew how restaurants ticked, how they functioned and how they constantly battled to keep afloat. That’s why he celebrated their successes — and they loved him for it. Richard passed away this week after a sudden but brief struggle with cancer. The London dining scene is in mourning. But the next time I dine solo, I will imagine him sitting in the empty chair across from me. He’s always the best company. --- The other bit of bad restaurant news — almost as terrible as losing a friend — was the announcement that Lyle’s in Shoreditch is closing. If London restaurants made this transplanted New Yorker feel at home over the last seven years, Lyle’s was my favorite room. I was there practically once a week to soak up the bright light of its lunch hours and to be nourished by chef James Lowe’s marvelous cuisine. After 11 years, it will serve its last meal on Sunday, May 18. I will write a little more extensively about it — and the ephemeral nature of good restaurants — in a future column. For now, it is one more despondent note in a sad week. Mihir Sharma’s reflections on traveling to America got me inking…  “It doesn’t matter how you fly. They’ll say you’re a stork and search you.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send bundles of joy and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and find us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Threads. | 
