The Forecast
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Welcome back to The Forecast from Bloomberg Weekend, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.

This weekend we’re looking at stablecoins taking crypto mainstream, nuclear deterrence theories put to the test, the chances Israel strikes Iran and Florida’s struggling real estate market.

Crypto Tries to Go Mainstream

In 2020 you could buy one Bitcoin for less than $10,000; on Friday, you’d have had to pay 10 times as much. That record high – above $111,000 – reflected optimism about a boring-by-design corner of the industry known as stablecoins.

The argument goes something like this: Legislation is working its way through Congress that would provide a framework for the issuance of stablecoins – so-called because they’re supposed to maintain a steady price through a peg to a fiat currency like the dollar. The current inhabitant of the White House is a fan of crypto, and especially of digital assets that bear his name and likeness. He wants progress on the bill. That’s good for crypto, and the way you express confidence in crypto is by buying Bitcoin. 

Two firms, Tether and Circle, control most of the existing stablecoin market. Proponents of the bill under consideration say it would make it easier for regulators to monitor these assets and safer for companies to accept stablecoins as payment. 

But there are hurdles, including a disagreement between smaller banks and crypto firms. Community banks don’t want competition for deposits, so they agitated against a provision that would allow stablecoin issuers to pay interest to holders. That puts them at odds with companies like Coinbase, the only publicly traded US crypto exchange. Coinbase CEO Brian Amstrong has said that stablecoins “should be able to pay interest just like an ordinary savings account, without the onerous disclosure requirements and tax implications imposed by securities laws.” (Coinbase did not return a request for comment.)

Meta, back when it was still Facebook, tried and failed for years to launch a stablecoin called Diem for cross-border payments. The Senate’s bill would allow tech and other non-financial firms to issue their own tokens, but they would face a higher regulatory hurdle than banks and credit unions because they would be subject to new rules and approvals.

Some Democrats, like Senator Elizabeth Warren, are not pleased that the Trump family’s associated crypto project, World Liberty Financial, has a stablecoin of its own. They are arguing for provisions that would prevent such potential conflicts of interest. World Liberty and the president maintain that no such conflicts exist.

Despite the concerns, some form of stablecoin legislation is expected to pass. That’s likely to unleash a flurry of dealmaking and increased competition. Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan, for example, has said the bank is prepared to launch its own token if it becomes legal to do so. 

Right now, most of the volume in stablecoin usage happens in trading into and out of other crypto tokens or for various illicit activities. To really enter the mainstream, stablecoins will also have to become an easy and accessible option for everyday tasks like buying a coffee or doing a money transfer and less associated with terrorist financing.

— stacy-marie ishmael, Bloomberg News 

Predictions

…about AI…

“[AI] models are going to be better than all of us at everything,” according to Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic. — Shirin Ghaffary, Bloomberg Businessweek (We leave it to you to decide if this counts as talking up your company’s product or being unusually candid about its potential side effects.)

“Metro areas with both high educational attainment and high costs of living are the most vulnerable to AI disruption.” That means places like San Francisco and Boston. — Conor Sen, Bloomberg Opinion (The Forecast covered similar research in March.)

Ready or not, robotaxis are coming: 

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be born in Abilene, Texas. So says Crusoe CEO Chase Lochmiller. Crusoe is the development company behind Stargate, an AI infrastructure project backed by OpenAI, which is building a “megafactory” in Abilene. — Emily Chang, Bloomberg News  

AI assistants will help you catch up when you get back from vacation. — Jo Constantz, Bloomberg News 

…and about everything else…

The next wave of tech IPOs is coming. “There will be a couple months of quiet activity while the next wave is readying themselves,” says Heidi Mayon, a partner at law firm Simpson Thacher. — Katie Roof and Kate Clark, Bloomberg News  

Florida’s real estate dip is here to stay, thanks to climate change: “This is resetting the baseline values of housing in Florida,” says Jesse Keenan, a real estate professor at Tulane University. — Leslie Kaufman and Prashant Gopal, Bloomberg Green (At Bloomberg Opinion, Jonathan Levin says declining immigration is also a big factor.)

Trump’s war on Harvard will benefit China. “Hong Kong University of Science and Technology has already offered to unconditionally accept Harvard students.” — Katia Dmitrieva, Bloomberg News 

The price of a cookout will rise this summer in the US. It’s less about tariffs and more to do with rising costs for things like beef. — Deena Shanker, Bloomberg Businessweek

Keep an Eye On

The Limits of Nuclear Deterrence

For several hours on Saturday, May 10, it looked like the India-Pakistan conflict risked spiraling into nuclear war. The US and other nations raced to calm things down, eventually producing a ceasefire that is still holding roughly two weeks later.

On its face the episode showed that nuclear deterrence worked as intended. But it may have set the stage for a more dangerous conflict down the road.

India and Pakistan have long been a case study in what’s known as the Stability-Instability Paradox. The theory, credited to international relations professor Glenn Snyder in 1965, says that while the threat of mutually assured destruction reduces the likelihood of nuclear powers clashing head-on, it makes it more likely they’ll engage in peripheral conventional wars or proxy fights. In other words, nuclear powers are more likely to engage in smaller-scale skirmishes because they can be confident fear of nuclear war will ensure things don’t spiral out of control.

Sure enough, in 1999, just one year after India and Pakistan declared themselves as nuclear powers, Pakistan initiated a low-level conflict by infiltrating Indian-controlled areas of Kashmir. India responded with a military operation to push Pakistan back, using conventional tactics that didn’t escalate the situation into an all-out war.

But these days officials in New Delhi are increasingly frustrated, and their new stance will test the limits of the Stability-Instability Paradox. After this month’s ceasefire, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said any terrorist attack against the country from now on would be considered an act of war, and all of Pakistan is fair game for retaliation. He’s essentially calling Pakistan’s bluff, betting that it won’t actually use atomic weapons in future fights. That in turn will incentivize Pakistan to show that its nuclear threats are serious.

So far, the Stability-Instability Paradox has shown that cooler heads will eventually prevail. But if one day they don’t, the world will need a new theory — assuming anyone is still around to think it up.

— Daniel Ten Kate, Bloomberg News

Read the full essay: The India-Pakistan Conflict Is Testing the Threshold for Nuclear War

What Are the Chances...

28%
The chance of Israeli military action against Iran before July, according to Polymarket. However, the chances of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is just 6%. Forecasts as of 4 p.m. ET on Friday.

Weekend Reads

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Week Ahead

Monday: The Asean summit begins in Kuala Lumpur; US markets are closed for Memorial Day.

Tuesday: France reports CPI; Xiaomi reports earnings. 

Wednesday: The Fed releases minutes from its FOMC meeting; Germany reports unemployment; France reports GDP; Australia reports CPI; New Zealand’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates; OPEC+ holds a virtual meeting; Nvidia and Salesforce report earnings.

Thursday: South Korea’s central bank will likely cut rates by a quarter point white South Africa’s holds; the US publishes the second reading of first-quarter GDP; Costco reports earnings.

Friday: The US reports PCE; Brazil, Canada and India report GDP; Germany, Japan, Italy and Spain report CPI. 

Also: On Sunday, June 1, Poland holds its presidential election runoff.

Have a great Sunday and a productive week.

—Walter Frick and Kira Bindrim, Bloomberg Weekend; Daniel Ten Kate and stacy-marie ishmael, Bloomberg News

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