Good morning. Andrew here. Greetings from Cannes, France, where the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, the advertising industry’s biggest gathering, kicks off today. The A.I. debate is a huge issue, as we explained on Saturday. There’s another topic that’s being discussed here. The U.S. government is considering approval for the merger of Interpublic and Omnicom — but only if the Madison Avenue giants pledge not to engage in political boycotting of any particular platforms when they consider buying ad space for their clients. The Trump administration argues such boycotts are a restraint of trade and, perhaps, on free speech. In the age of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, which gave companies power to influence politics — and was supported by Republicans — is it ironic to now see the administration taking the opposite approach? Here’s a thought experiment: A client hires an agency, which genuinely believes the client shouldn’t advertise on a specific website because it presents a potential risk to that brand’s safety or public image. This new provision, depending on how it’s interpreted, could make it near impossible for an agency to live up to that professional obligation. If you were this firm’s client, would you remain one? Please let me know your thoughts. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
Oil in focusA sense of calm has returned to global markets even as Israel and Iran clashed for a fourth day. Israeli missile strikes are increasingly targeting Iran’s oil and gas facilities, including those at South Pars, a major gas field. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at around $73.60 a barrel this morning. That’s up roughly 10 percent over the past five days, but Brent traded as high as $78 this weekend. Markets remain worried about the fighting’s hit to companies and consumers. The turmoil could translate to a 20-cent-per-gallon jump in gasoline prices in the United States just as the summer peak-driving season gets underway, analysts say. With a string of central bank meetings this week — including the Fed’s on Tuesday and Wednesday — policymakers are likely to field plenty of questions about how a volatile energy market could affect inflation and interest rate forecasts. How bad can it get? Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a research note on Friday that a full disruption of Iranian oil would push Brent crude above $120 a barrel. Yet traders don’t appear to be betting on the worst-case scenario, even with no letup to the fighting seemingly in sight. Yesterday’s scheduled talks between Tehran and Washington on the future of Iran’s nuclear program were also called off. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a positive open, and other traditional safe-haven investments — such as the dollar and gold — have fallen. That said, there has been a slight sell-off in long-dated Treasury notes and bonds, probably because of concerns about the Israel-Iran fighting leading to higher inflation. The conflict is likely to be a focus at this week’s Group of 7 meeting, along with the U.S. trade battles. The Trump administration has a vested interest in seeing Israel and Iran de-escalate to keep a lid on energy prices. “We maintain our view that this is likely to remain a short-lived conflict, as further escalation risks spiraling beyond the control of key stakeholders,” Janiv Shah, an oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, an independent research and advisory firm, wrote in a research note this morning. Rystad sees Brent holding below $80 a barrel.
More details emerge about the federal government’s “golden share” in U.S. Steel. A national security pact signed by U.S. Steel and its Japanese buyer, Nippon Steel, gives the Trump administration a noneconomic share in Class G preferred stock — as in gold. It gives the government veto power over nearly a dozen activities by U.S. Steel, including transferring jobs outside the U.S. and idling plants. The move, as we’ve written, could reshape foreign investment in the country. The Trump administration reportedly weighs expanding its travel ban. The move would put full or partial travel restrictions on visitors from 36 countries — up from a dozen today — if the countries fail to step up certain internal security measures, Reuters reports. (The proposed additions are mostly in Africa.) The deliberations comes as the administration increases its crackdown on immigration, which could see net immigration fall for the first time in 50 years this year, denting economic growth and raising inflation. Leonard Lauder dies at 92. The billionaire who with his mother built a major cosmetics empire and became an influential philanthropist and art collector, died Saturday at his home in Manhattan, the Estée Lauder Companies said. His legacy lives on through his many donations of art masterpieces to top museums — and in economics: He coined the Lipstick Index, based on the idea that lipstick sales rise when the economy sours. In Paris, deal makers shift from A.I. to defenseToday is the start of the Paris Air Show, the biennial event that’s a showcase for defense deals — something even more important as Israel and Iran trade their biggest firepower in decades and NATO’s trans-Atlantic bond shows strain ahead of the organization’s summit in the Netherlands next week. It also comes on the heels of the VivaTech start-up conference and trade show. Many investors and foreign officials say they plan to attend both, on the hunt for new business alliances. Driving that is a turn away from the U.S. under President Trump, but not America’s scientists, whom they hope to hire, Vivienne Walt reports. “We are too dependent on the U.S.,” said Mélanie Joly, Canada’s innovation, science and industry minister, who is in Paris for VivaTech and the air show. She told DealBook she had a packed schedule of meetings, geared to expanding European business ties for Canada’s tech and military complex: “We’re seeing the emergence of new economic blocs.” The stakes are huge. The richest pick is the roughly €800 billion ($924 billion) ReArm Europe investment plan for upgrading Europe’s militaries, which Brussels announced in March after Trump flirted with ending Ukraine’s war support. “We want to make sure we have access to that market,” said Joly, adding that Canada would seek to join ReArm Europe as an associate member.
Another war continues for talent. Top French research institutions, which are courting American researchers hit by Trump’s cuts, set up large stands at VivaTech. The European Union announced last month a €500 million “Choose Europe for Science” fund to help. Canada also wants American researchers, with Joly telling DealBook the country has drawn up plans to recruit as many as 1,000. A.I. will be a focus at the Paris Air Show, as it was at VivaTech. Organizers of the tech gathering said that about 3,600 investors and 4,000 start-ups participated, the bulk of which was focused on artificial intelligence. But during one panel discussion, some wondered about the out-of-whack economics behind A.I. The technology “is world-changing, but if you look at the computing power being put in place, we are not there yet,” Julien Meyfret, a French investment consultant, told DealBook. Those concerns don’t appear to have dampened enthusiasm for A.I. last week — or this week.
“I’m sure it would have been cheaper to pay that fee, you know?”— Derek Lowe, a medicinal chemist. In Science magazine, Lowe wrote about Novo Nordisk having failed to pay annual maintenance fees for years on its Canadian patent on semaglutide, the medication behind Ozempic and Wegovy. (The yearly fee, with penalties, rose to $450 in 2019.) Novo Nordisk has since lost the patent for semaglutide in Canada, one of the drug’s largest markets worldwide. How Trump Inc. got paid before taking powerAs questions continue to arise about how President Trump and his allies are making money from his presidency, recent government filings — published late last week without much fanfare — shed light on how they made money before Trump returned to office. Here are some of the highlights from the disclosures, which cover last year. Crypto was a big deal even before the president and his family pushed even more deeply into digital currencies this year. Trump’s stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto company he announced last year, earned about $57 million in 2024, making it one of the family’s most lucrative investments. A licensing deal involving so-called NFT collectibles earned another $1.2 million. All told, Trump reported employment-related assets worth at least $1.4 billion and revenue of at least $622 million. Trump and his family are poised to earn much more than that from crypto, an industry they have embraced wholeheartedly. World Liberty has since sold more than a half-billion dollars worth of its coin, with many of the proceeds going to the family. Trump himself was involved in the $TRUMP meme coin and holds a stake which, on paper, may be worth billions. Many eventual administration officials benefited from being in Trump’s orbit:
And then there’s Vice President JD Vance. His disclosure revealed that he earned between $100,000 and $1 million from Narya, a venture capital firm he founded in 2020 with backing from the longtime Republican donor Peter Thiel. (Other investors in Narya include Eric Schmidt, the former Google C.E.O., and Marc Andreessen, the venture capital magnate.) We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.
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