| It’s been a week of tragedy and chaos after the crash of Air India flight 171, the world’s worst aviation disaster in a decade. Bereaved family members waiting for remains of their loved ones, cancelled flights and unnerved passengers — all made worse by patchy communications from authorities and the airline. Recovery work at the crash site has been a task of of enormous complexity, meticulous detail and emotional weight, Bloomberg’s senior reporter P R Sanjai, said to me on his return from the spot this week. He shared stories of distressed officials and first responders. Autorickshaw driver Chirag Makhwana told Sanjai he hadn’t slept in days after having helped pull charred body parts from the wreckage. So far, 208 dead have been identified with the final toll said to exceed 270, according to local media. Over 80 Air India flights have been cancelled in the past week, some due to technical issues, compounded by passengers panicking over faulty air conditioning and entertainment systems as potential omens of impending flight failure. While it’s not an uncommon reaction, an information vacuum has opened up space for speculation, said Benedikt Kammel, who’s reported on several crashes as Bloomberg’s managing editor for space and aviation. “We’ve had very few press conferences, very few announcements and we’ve heard very little from the airline,” Kammel said to me on the phone from Paris, where the biennial air show is missing its usual revelry.  Security guards stand watch at the Air India crash site in the densely populated Meghani Nagar area in Ahmedabad. Photographer: Elke Scholiers/Getty Images AsiaPac Meanwhile, with the two black boxes retrieved, authorities should soon have preliminary findings on what caused the crash. India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau is leading the investigation with observers from Air India, Boeing and foreign regulators. A final conclusion on what went wrong could take months, if not years. Kammel expects the crash will prompt a reevaluation of all aspects of Indian aviation, especially as its being touted as a top growth market for the next 20 years. “India needs to own that growth story in a way that people will want to travel there.” To do that, India will have to find answers to three important questions. What is the future of Air India? The airline, owned by Tata Sons and Singapore Airlines, was already in the midst of a challenging turnaround from a decrepit, loss-making national carrier to profitable private airline. It now faces significant crash-related financial costs, even if insurance picks up most of the bill, and a huge blow to a brand that is already hurting due to poorly equipped planes and unreliable services. To emerge from this as a resilient, world-class airline, the management faces some tough decisions that need to put sustainability over growth, said Kapil Kaul, chief executive officer at CAPA India, a center for aviation industry intelligence. It should curtail schedules, for example, especially international flights, until newer planes are available and engineering and operational capabilities are reassessed. (Air India just announced a 15% cut in long-haul flights.) The Tata Group has had a history of tough acquisitions — remember steel giant Corus. But they have sometimes prevailed, like with Jaguar Land Rover. How can India tackle its aviation duopoly? A high airline failure rate in India has resulted in IndiGo Airlines (at 64%) and Air India (at 27%) cornering over 90% of the domestic air travel market, the third largest in the world. They are now too big to fail, presenting a policy conundrum for the government. On the other hand, Indian airlines lost billions of dollars due to a very fragmented market 20 years ago, said Kaul. He expects Akasa Air and SpiceJet will become credible long term players once global aviation supply chain issues ease. But that could take a awhile — the average wait time for new aircraft doubled to five-and-a-half years in 2024. On international routes, Indian carriers have just over 20% share, yet the crash may prompt the government to open more bilateral routes to foreign airlines for a more competitive market. What regulatory overhauls are needed? India has had a good aviation safety record so far. But the Directorate General of Civil Aviation raised eyebrows when it sought enhanced surveillance of Air India’s Boeing 787 fleet after the crash, indicating there wasn’t 100% surveillance to begin with. Such moves, on top of problems like chronic understaffing, underfunding and inadequate professional expertise, suggest India’s aviation market regulators are due for a complete remodel. It is not just about the airlines but the entire infrastructure, including air traffic control, airports, training and MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) systems, said Kaul. He advocates more independence and accountability, for instance by restructuring the DGCA on the lines of the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority, an independent, statutory body funded by the industry and answerable to it. It’s taken Indian aviation 90 years to build a fleet size of over 800 planes and annual traffic of 242 million passengers. This is set to double in the next five years, Kaul estimated. “It requires the entire aviation system to look within to ensure we manage this growth with responsibility.” | 
