India Edition
Precision and purity.
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Bloomberg
by Menaka Doshi

Welcome to India Edition, I’m Menaka Doshi. Join me each week for a ringside view of the billionaires, businesses and policy decisions behind India’s rise as an emerging economic powerhouse.

You can subscribe here, and share feedback with me here.

This week: India’s budding romance with chips, a festival gift to consumers and a lukewarm response to Tesla.

Momentum Building

“When the chips are down, count on India,” Prime Minister Modi said at a semiconductor conference this week.

Three chip projects are slated to start pilot production this year, emphasizing the country’s entry into the global chip battle — dominated by tricky neighbors and fickle friends.

India’s four-year-old mission to develop a local semiconductor industry is gaining momentum, suggests government data. To date, there are 10 semiconductor projects; $18 billion in investment commitments; subsidies of over $7 allocated; 23 chip design projects sanctioned; a new semiconductor-led technical education curriculum, and over 60,000 students under various training programs.

At the Semicon conference in New Delhi this week, top executives from chip majors AMD, Applied Materials, ASML, Tokyo Electron, Infineon and LAM Research expressed interest to partner with India, Bloomberg’s South Asia Tech Correspondent Sankalp Phartiyal said to me.

But, as Phartiyal reports, no major firms have committed big investments in Indian chip manufacturing so far, barring Taiwan’s PSMC, which has partnered with the Tata Group to produce 28 nanometer chips. It was the only fab project underway until private company SiCSem and an HCL-Foxconn joint venture announced their plans recently. The remaining facilities, including Micron’s, pertain largely to assembly, testing, marking and packaging.

That’s prompted criticism that India’s semiconductor push is limited to less advanced chips and processes.

Ashok Chandak disagrees. These are establishing moves, said the president of industry bodies Semi India and IESA. India has gone from virtually zero presence in the chip ecosystem to 10 projects in diverse technologies including recently announced ventures for a compound fab and advanced electronic packaging, he said.

The 28 to 110 nm chips to be manufactured or assembled and packaged in India will serve consumer and power electronics, automobiles, computing and data storage and wireless communication among others, and will be sold locally as well as exported. That’s a $400 billion market opportunity in an estimated $1 trillion global semiconductor industry by 2030, Chandak said.

But to claim any meaningful part of that market, India needs to build the semiconductor ecosystem – including many chip design ventures, vendors of chemicals, gases, wires and other ancillaries, manufacturing technology investments and skilled labor for factories. It will take precision and purity in materials and process.

“We cannot be perpetually dependent on the overseas collaborator for technology transfer and training, we must build our own in the next three to five years,” Chandak said.

India has one advantage in the global chip race — Indians.

At Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, a third of the engineers and senior leadership are Indians. “India designs Nvidia’s chips,” CEO Jensen Huang said in an interview to Economic Times last year. 

The Indian diaspora could also help global customers overcome concerns over working with new Indian chipmakers. 

Most of these global companies have Indians in the top three or four positions and they can carry our message, said Vellayan Subbiah, chairman of CG Power — which just launched a pilot Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test facility — to the Hindu Business Line. The Chinese diaspora really supported the building of China, and this is going to be very important for the building of India as well, Subbiah said.

Another benefit is government incentives for chip manufacturing and design. Some projects will receive capital subsidies of close to 70% from center and state governments. Yet India’s $8.6 billion semiconductor fund pales against the $52 billion provided under the US Chips Act.

A new complexity is President Donald Trump’s demand for equity in exchange for incentives. The US government now owns just under 10% of Intel, giving it influence over the company’s investment plans. Just last year the US wanted to build a fab in India. Now Trump’s threatening tariffs on semiconductor imports, making it  tougher for India to draw mega investments from chip majors.

Ironically, this growing weaponization of the semiconductor supply chain underscores the urgency of Modi’s make-in-India mission. Chandak said the goal is to become a salient player that imports as well as exports semiconductors, creating interdependence with other manufacturing countries to preclude any geopolitical arm twisting.

It will be twice as hard, but India is hoping to repeat its iPhone manufacturing success in the semiconductor industry.

Best of Bloomberg

It’s been a week of flex for China. First the Xi, Modi, Putin bonhomie in Tianjin that seemed to mark a historic redrawing of geopolitical power. Then a military parade (watch here) to showcase its growing firepower — where Xi stood flanked by Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

It drew Trump’s attention. “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” the US president said on his Truth Social site. 

There’s as much drama in the global bond market where renewed selling pressure is pushing yields to historic highs. It may be a treacherous September for longer-maturity bonds, say experts. 

The pace of rise in Indian yields is causing some alarm too, as markets digest deceptively strong GDP growth data and consider the fiscal implications of the consumption tax rejig.

A special mention here for the Odd Lots podcast this week featuring Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.

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By the Numbers: Tesla Underwhelms

600 cars
Since launching sales in mid-July, Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker has received orders far short of the company’s own expectations.

Second Lead: India’s $17 Billion Tax Bonanza 

Starting Sept. 22, almost everything, from soaps to motorcycles, will be cheaper in India due to lower consumption tax rates. This will help boost consumption in the tariff-hit economy, especially ahead of the Diwali festival season in October.

A long-pending rejig of the goods and services tax was approved by a panel of federal and state finance minsters on Thursday. The four-tiered GST rate structure is now down to a standard 18% rate on items like air conditioners and cars, a merit rate of 5% on food, medicine and toiletries and a sin rate of 40% on colas, tobacco and luxury cars. The additional levy of a compensation cess has been removed except for on a few items like pan masala. 

Some goods and services, like colas and business class air travel, have moved to a higher tax rate and will become pricier. The net impact on tax revenue is an estimated 480 billion rupees ($5.45 billion). Much of that burden will fall on states, as I wrote last week. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said discussions will continue on compensation options.

The Modi government started the year with a $11.5 billion income tax cut for middle class Indians and is ending it with a $5.45 billion consumption tax break. The impact of this $17 billion giveaway on tax buoyancy and growth is yet to determined.

Will you spend more this Diwali? On what?

Email me at indiaedition@bloomberg.net. Thank you to Sumit and Aditya for the great feedback last week and to the rest of you for reading India Edition. — Menaka.

India Edition Last Week: India’s States Face Dual Threat From Trump’s Tariffs, Modi’s Tax Cuts

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