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As we look into the week ahead, the omnipresent threat to our country continues to come from the president. In the past week he threatened to “go to war” in Chicago in a social media post referencing Vietnam. He also ordered a strike on a ship allegedly carrying Venezuelan gang members running drugs. That ship could have been interdicted instead of destroyed, likely sparing the 11 lives that were lost.
Multiple facets of the imperial presidency will eventually make their way to the Supreme Court. There are numerous theories about what is happening there, ranging from total capture by Trump to strategic preparation for a last stand for democracy. Heading into the week, we have some fresh insight into how the Chief Justice views the Court’s role.
Robert Michael Dow Jr. was appointed to a federal district judgeship in the Northern District of Illinois by George W. Bush in 2007. Ironically, that is the court likely to hear first-line challenges if Trump moves into Chicago. But Dow won’t be among the judges any cases go to there. In October 2022, John Roberts tapped Dow for the role of Counselor to the Chief Justice, a full-time responsibility taken on by a judge who serves as the Chief’s chief of staff, performing “such duties as may be assigned to him by the Chief Justice.”
On occasions when the Counselor speaks publicly, it’s worth paying attention, because he, as much as anyone, has a bead on the Chief’s views when it comes to the Court. Last week, Dow spoke at a meeting held by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals. Among the points he made:
The Chief Justice, who many people thought was referring to Donald Trump when he mentioned an attack on the judiciary in an end-of-the-year message, was actually pointing to the “long-term trend of eroding esteem for the judiciary.”
He discussed potential threats of violence over unpopular rulings, saying, “This isn’t the first time that we’ve had to navigate times similar to the times we’re in now. It doesn’t make it any less scary for all of us who have to navigate that.” He continued, noting that the Chief Justice is “very aware of these threats.”
The judiciary is the least powerful branch of government under the Constitution, albeit the one with the ability to declare acts by the other branches unconstitutional. Dow suggested that “the chief justice is wary about being pulled into political struggles where the judiciary is at a significant disadvantage compared to the White House and Congress,” rather than focusing on the power the judiciary holds.
Dow’s assessment of the power differential is a concerning one, given the times we live in: “The problem for our branch is that we have a very tiny megaphone, and if we use our megaphone too often, we risk losing what I would say is the long game, and the long game is to preserve our independence.”
It appears that the Chief Justice is largely removed from the moment the rest of the country is living through—a moment where democracy, not just the reputation of the judiciary, is at stake.
There was one interesting development, though. Dow suggested judges might want to engage more with the public to help them understand how the judicial branch works. That level of transparency and understanding can work both ways and is long overdue in a branch of government that can be cultishly opaque. A little transparency would go a long way. “This may be a wake-up call for all of us to rededicate ourselves to get out there in the world and not be isolated judges, and make sure that people understand what we do, why it’s important, and the value over the long term for our country that we continue to have a strong, robust, independent judiciary that’s free from violence and intimidation and whose rulings are respected,” Dow said.
The lower federal courts are frantically signaling presidential overreach, but none of that seems to have permeated to the attic level of the judicial branch, the Supreme Court.
The judiciary isn’t the only branch of government the public holds in low esteem. Trump is seeing some of his worst poll numbers. A new NBC poll shows that 57% of Americans disapprove of the president. The poll shows “strong support” for vaccines, as HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. does his best to end their use. Only 39% approve of how Trump is handling inflation. That number increases 2 points to 41% when the questions was about trade and tariffs.
But despite all of this disapproval, 4 in 10 Americans still approve of Trump’s job performance. When questions turned to immigration, almost half of Americans approved of the job Trump was doing on immigration and border security, but that number dropped to 43% when deportations were raised. You can see why Trump might need to distract Americans with the threat to Chicago that we discussed last night.
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It remains to be seen whether Trump is serious about bringing what he characterized as “war” to Chicago, and if he is, whether the distraction will work. But he has another major problem on his hands this week: Trump may not have released the Epstein files, but Congress is about to get its hands on more of them.
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Trump’s Justice Department, grasping at straws, asked a judge on Friday to reject a request from NBC News to unseal the names of Epstein associates who received large payments from him in 2018, as reporting on him in the Miami Herald was getting underway. Those names are already more or less known through public reporting and government pleadings in the Epstein case. But DOJ cited “privacy concerns” and declined to make the names public. There is every appearance of kowtowing to the usual audience of one. NBC will have to file a response with the judge Friday on its views, now that DOJ has asserted privacy concerns to bar releasing the names.
But the House Oversight Committee will receive items from Epstein’s estate on Monday, including the "birthday book" the New York Times confirmed back in July contained a contribution from Trump, although Trump denied it. And the discharge petition that, if it succeeds, would force a floor vote in which all members of the House would have to vote for or against public release of Epstein materials seems to be back in play. Although it hasn’t picked up the two more Republican votes it would need, the Daily reported Sunday afternoon that vacant seats about to be filled by Democrats in special elections would provide the final votes. Appearing on ABC Sunday, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) confirmed the votes were there. Speaker Mike Johnson opposes holding the vote.
We often discuss here the importance of planting seeds that may help Trump supporters begin to see the truth. These are some large seeds that we should plant frequently and wherever possible this week.
Trump is not as strong as he tries to appear to be. Never forget it. He’s just one bad moment away from it all unraveling. While he continues to try to keep as much information as possible about Epstein secret, even loyal MAGA, like Marjorie Taylor Green, seem to have persistent questions. And, if Trump is lying to people about Epstein after promising openness, what else is he lying about? Keep asking that question.
If thoughtful analysis that cuts through the noise matters to you, I hope you’ll find a home here at Civil Discourse. The goal here is simple: to give you the tools to see clearly through the noise.
We’re in this together,
Joyce