Stocks have been sitting pretty recently at record highs. Friday’s jobs report brought them down with a bump, as lower-than-expected employment growth ignited fears of a slowing economy. Chuck in another set of
downward revisions to previous months—meaning June was actually the first negative month for jobs since 2020—and the picture begins to look bleak.
But events in Georgia suggest the payroll report might be a little misleading. The immigration raid at a Hyundai plant on Thursday was a reminder the Trump administration is serious about deporting alleged “illegal workers,” even at the cost of a diplomatic spat with the South Korean government over the weekend.
That affects the labor market. Economists at Deutsche Bank estimate that, accounting for reduced immigration and higher deportations, the breakeven rate—the number of jobs needed each month to keep the unemployment rate steady—might be as low as 50,000 a month. August’s 22,000 additions look less concerning in that light.
That might account for why few traders are pricing in a less than 10% chance of a jumbo 50-basis points interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. With uncertainty over the true state of the jobs market, this week’s inflation data could take precedence in determining the central bank’s urgency in cutting rates.
Trump’s mass deportation plans come with their own complications—the construction, agriculture, and hospitality sectors could face labor shortages. But at least in the short term, the gloom in the jobs market needn’t cast a shadow over stocks.
—Adam Clark
*** The final third of 2025 is off to a troubling start. Stocks are sliding, bond yields are rising, gold is soaring,
and questions are swirling about the future of President Trump’s tariff strategy and the makeup of the Federal Reserve. Join Barron’s senior managing editors Lauren Rublin and Ben Levisohn today at noon when they discuss the investment forecast and stocks in the news. Sign up here.
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Trump’s Approval Ratings Fall Amid Inflation, Tariff Worries
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating fell in the most recent NBC News poll, showing the number of adults who strongly or somewhat approve of his job performance was 43% versus 45% in June. Approval of his handling of trade and inflation scored the lowest among other issues.
- About 41% of voters strongly or somewhat approved of Trump’s handling of trade, and 39% of inflation. On border security, 47% strongly or somewhat approved, while 43% said the same about deportations. About 45% of adults named inflation and the rising cost of living as their most important economic issues.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s tariffs, which it imposed under emergency powers, the Treasury would be forced to refund about half of what it has collected, “which would be terrible.” But he told NBC News he was confident the administration would prevail.
- Bessent wouldn’t acknowledge that tariffs are “a tax” on Americans, despite estimates by companies such as Deere, Nike, and Black & Decker that tariffs were costing them money. Goldman Sachs research found that 86% of the tariff revenue collected so far has been paid by American businesses and consumers.
- The Trump administration is prepared to exempt a number of imports from its so-called reciprocal tariffs starting today for some countries after President Trump signed an executive order late Friday. The administration said it would make the exemptions for countries that have
reached deals with the U.S.
What’s Next: This week’s big economic reports include the consumer price index for August, due out on Thursday, and Tuesday’s revisions for jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Downward revisions are expected and, if severe enough, could put a jumbo rate cut in play at the Fed.
—Liz Moyer and Dan Lam
It’s a Big Week for IPOs: Klarna, Gemini Set to Debut
The initial public offering market is getting hotter, even as the summer’s heat gives way to autumn chills. Six companies are in line to make their debuts this week, according to Renaissance Capital, including fintech
Klarna and the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station, backed by the billionaire Winklevoss twins.
- Also on tap are the building engineering and maintenance firm Legence, blockchain lending platform Figure, public transit software services provider Via Transportation, and Black Rock Coffee. The chain isn’t linked to
the asset-management company BlackRock.
- Klarna is currently planning to raise about $1.3 billion from the sale, for a $14 billion valuation. Gemini intends to raise approximately $300 million, for a $2.3 billion valuation. Both companies could boost the sizes of their offerings, and their price ranges, before their stocks begin trading.
- If recent trading trends are any guide, this week’s IPO shares could pop once they start trading. The IPO market has enjoyed a healthy comeback as of late, along with the broader market. Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group, the design software developer Figma, and crypto platform Bullish have all debuted.
- But while these and other IPOs posted eye-popping returns out of the starting gate, all three have pulled back since then. Some analysts are expressing caution about the hype surrounding this coming crop of IPOs. Gemini and Klarna, which lost $52 million in the second quarter, are in focus.
What’s Next: Analysts said there could be more attractive entry points after these companies release their first earnings reports in a few months. Newly public stocks also often fall once insiders are allowed to sell shares after lockup periods expire, typically 180 days from their IPO date.
—Paul R. La Monica
Apple’s Product Event Is Coming. What to Expect.
Apple will host its annual product event on Tuesday, and investors are looking for new features and capabilities that could spur customers to buy new device
