Nigeria, Italy ... England? Big names may struggle to reach the World Cup

It’s been telling how much of the coverage around England recently has focused on how they must improve before the World Cup finals next summer. It’s true, of course: they’ve been in the final of the last two Euros, played well in getting to the quarter-final of the last World Cup and have a fleet of extremely gifted players but have not really impressed since beating Greece in the Nations League under Lee Carsley last November.

What’s never considered, though, is the thought that they may not get to the 2026 World Cup at all.

England travel to face Serbia on Tuesday, having won four out of four without conceding a goal. But three of those four games have been at home and two of them have been against Andorra. They still have to go not only to Belgrade but also to Tirana to face Albania. Serbia could only draw away there, which offers a little breathing space, but were England to lose on Tuesday, they would be under pressure. The home game against Serbia in November could end up as a shootout for who takes the group’s sole automatic qualification slot and who is forced into the playoffs. It’s a jeopardy to which England as a whole, having not missed out on a World Cup since the last one staged in the USA, in 1994, have perhaps not quite adjusted.

For the major nations of western Europe, the assumption seems to have been that the expanded World Cup would mean guaranteed qualification – and understandably so. This is not 1978 when there were only 16 qualifiers and England and Italy faced off in a four-team qualifying group with only one to make it to Argentina. It’s not even like 1994, a 24-team tournament, when England were grouped with the Netherlands, a very good Norway and a decent Poland, plus Turkey and San Marino, with two qualifying from that cohort. Even after expansion to 32 sides, England found themselves in groups with Italy (for 1998) and Germany (for 2002), with one to qualify directly and the other to face a playoff. The current qualification group with Serbia, Albania, Latvia and Andorra was potentially awkward rather than daunting.

And yet England are not the only side with a reasonable chance of winning the tournament facing up to the fact that their presence in North America next summer may not be a fait accompli. South American qualifying is as good as done – that 10-team megagroup is now a flawed splurge of largely meaningless content when there are six qualifiers and a playoff spot on offer. Brazil had a real wobble in autumn 2023, losing three games in a row, yet still qualified with ease. All that remains to be settled there is whether Venezuela or Bolivia will take the playoff spot. New Zealand predictably took the Oceanian slot. The usual suspects – Japan, South Korea, Iran and Australia – have qualified from Asia, but so too have the first-timers Jordan and Uzbekistan, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman and Indonesia to contest the final three places.

It’s in Europe and Africa, though, where perceived giants could be in trouble. Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022, have already secured their place. Senegal, though, trail DR Congo by a point with three games to go and face a monumental game in Kinshasa on Tuesday. Lose that and, if they finish as one the best four (of nine) runners-up, they will play off for the right to be Africa’s representative in the intercontinental playoffs (two qualifiers from six). Cameroon, similarly, are a point behind Cape Verde, whom they face in Praia on Tuesday. Nigeria are in an even worse position. They kept hopes alive with an unconvincing 1-0 win over Rwanda on Saturday but lie behind both South Africa and Benin, both of whom they have still to play, in their group.

Europe’s qualifying is not so far advanced and the picture less clear, but Germany’s 2-0 defeat in Slovakia on Thursday added a frisson of anxiety. A home victory over Northern Ireland was necessary but far from comfortable; next month’s game in Belfast looks unexpectedly critical. Belgium’s draw away to North Macedonia in June has them looking anxiously at next month’s game away to Wales, even after comfortable wins this month over Liechtenstein and Kazakhstan.

But it’s Italy, four-time world champions, who, having missed out in 2018 and 2022, are in the biggest trouble. They were beaten 3-0 away to a Norway side finally beginning to play to the level of their best individuals in June and, after drawing 0-0 at home after 45 minutes to Estonia on Friday, there seemed a possibility they might not even take the playoff slot. Five second-half goals changed the mood, but Monday’s fixture against Israel (to be played in Debrecen, Hungary) represents a major test. Lose that, and although they’d have a game in hand, they’d be six points off second.

Even with 48 teams qualifying, in Europe and Africa, World Cup qualification cannot be taken for granted.

Of the 10 countries to have qualified for the most men’s World Cup finals all-time, only two have never won the tournament. Belgium is one. Who is the other?

a) United States
b) South Korea
c) Mexico
d) Uruguay

At around about 3.47pm on 8 September 1888, two minutes after kick-off, the winger Kenny Davenport put Bolton Wanderers ahead against Derby County, and so scored the first ever goal in the Football League. Davenport got Bolton’s second as well, but they lost 6-3. The game had been scheduled to kick off at 3.30pm, but Derby had arrived late and so kick-off was delayed by 15 minutes. Davenport’s achievement, though, was for a long time forgotten.

Fred Dewhurst, a forward for the Preston side that went unbeaten through that first Football League season to win the double, scored three minutes into their game with Burnley at Deepdale, but that game kicked off at 3.50pm. For a long time it had been thought that the first League goal had been an own-goal by the unfortunate Aston Villa defender Gershom Cox away at Wolves, who put through his own net after 33 minutes in a game widely believed to have kicked off at 3pm. But in 2013 the historians Robert Boyling and Mark Metcalf, who had always thought the 3pm kick-off improbably early given most fans would have worked a half day and the promotive nature of turnstiles at the time, found an advert for the game listing kick-off, as in the day’s other matches, at 3.30pm. And so the honour passed to Davenport.

The US men’s national team returned to action on Saturday, but there are updates from players who weren’t involved as well. Gio Reyna and Joe Scally both started a club friendly for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with Reyna providing an assist and Scally leaving early with an as-yet-undisclosed injury.

On the women’s side, several US national team players are getting their club seasons started in Europe. In France, Lily Yohannes scored on her debut for OL Lyonnes, starting in midfield alongside USWNT captain Lindsey Heaps. Korbin Shrader (née Albert) was not in the squad after her summer move from PSG. Crystal Dunn, meanwhile, started in PSG’s 1-1 draw with Lens.

In England, Naomi Girma missed Chelsea’s 3-1 season-opening win over Man City with a calf injury, with Catarina Macario coming on as a sub. Emily Fox went the full 90 for Arsenal in a dominant win over London City Lionesses.

(All times US Eastern Time)

World Cup qualifying wraps up for South America this week, but with every automatic qualifying spot in next year’s tournament decided all that’s left to fight for is a place in the intercontinental playoff. Venezuela have the inside track and can wrap up that playoff spot with a win over Colombia on Tuesday (7.30pm, Fanatiz). If Venezuela falter, Bolivia may be able to pip them to the spot with a win at home over Brazil on the same day, at the same time.

In Africa, Egypt can qualify for the World Cup on Tuesday with a win against Burkina Faso (noon, ESPN+), as can South Africa with a win over Nigeria on the same day (noon, ESPN Deportes). England also continue their qualifying campaign on Tuesday against Serbia (2.45pm, FS1).

The club game makes its return this weekend, highlighted by Manchester United v Manchester City on Sunday (11.30am, Peacock), and Internazionale v Juventus on Saturday (noon, Paramount+)

The answer is c) Mexico. El Tri have qualified for 18 men’s World Cups, fourth-most in history, but are the only side in the top 10 to have never finished in the top four.