Washington Edition

This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Nathan Dean gives his insights into what’s been happening and what’s coming up in the nooks and crannies of government and markets. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here.

Shutdown Stakes

A few weeks ago, I was at 40% odds for a government shutdown. That was before we saw an effort from the White House to rescind nearly $5 billion in foreign aid. It was also before Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced that he’ll likely change the rules to speed up confirmation for President Donald Trump’s nominees. And let’s not forget the potential for a progressive push to shut the government down as a new front in the fight against Trump, as Matthew Yglesias advocates for Bloomberg Opinion.

But you know what? As I write here on the Bloomberg terminal, I’m still at 40% odds. I don’t see how a shutdown benefits either party, especially as I don’t see a strategy from either party. And don’t forget — who provides guidance on who is an essential or non-essential employee during a government shutdown? Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, who has said that more partisanship is the way to break continuing resolutions. I’m not sure Democrats would want that.

I think Congress kicks the can once again and we talk about this before the end of the year.

One other thing: While shutdowns have very little impact on markets and industries, they offer perfect opportunities for lawmakers to attach legislation at the last minute and get it onto the president’s desk. When a client asked me today which bill could fit that “bill,” I immediately thought of the Credit Card Competition Act, which pits retailers against Visa, Mastercard, banks and airlines. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it’s been tried before.

I’m also excited to announce that my weekly call — the Washington Policy Pulse — where I discuss what’s happening in Washington with Bloomberg terminal clients is now available on the Balance of Power podcast. Take a listen, and please let me know if you ever want to join live.

Tidbits

I had a friend run the UTMB — a 100-mile race around Mont Blanc — and it made me think of this article by Brent Crane: The Ironman CEO Wants to Turn the Race Organizer Into a Lifestyle Brand.
It’s a big day in Paris today as Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has announced his resignation after losing a confidence vote. Here’s Bloomberg News’ latest take on the political turmoil in France.
And finally — for those of you in New York City — who knew that the Big Apple is in the midst of a Maximalist Chicken Moment?

Don’t Miss

US job growth in the year through March was probably far less robust than government figures currently show, economists say, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares to publish revisions.

Hiring in the health care industry is looking increasingly shaky, raising a warning flag for the economy given its importance as a key driver of job growth.

An immigration raid on a Hyundai Motor Co.-LG Energy Solution Ltd. battery venture in Georgia exposes risks for the Trump administration’s efforts to bring foreign investment into the US.

The Supreme Court backed the administration’s immigration enforcement efforts, allowing federal agents in Los Angeles to resume using tactics that critics say amount to racial profiling.

Regulators said they would move to eliminate what’s known as debanking — discrimination against customers on the basis of beliefs — after calls from some industry groups and Republicans.

Chief Justice John Roberts allowed Trump to temporarily oust a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, signaling the Supreme Court may back his bid to assert control over the agency.

The Trump administration’s push to cut federal sales incentives and roll back emissions standards is shaping up to be a multibillion-dollar gift to Detroit’s automakers

The administration has asked the Supreme Court to leave in place a freeze on foreign aid, some $10.5 billion of which is due to expire at the end of this month.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., hosts Joe Mathieu and Kriti Gupta interviewed Representative Mark Takano, a California Democrat, about redistricting and the administration’s immigration plans.

On the program at 5 p.m., they talk with former Pentagon official Evelyn Nicolette Farkas, who is now executive director of the McCain Institute for International Leadership, about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

On the Odd Lots podcast, Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal talk to Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, about the challenges of investment in AI and the industry’s development. Listen on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

On the Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Sarah Frier and host Sarah Holder discuss the recent federal court ruling in the landmark antitrust case against Google. Listen on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Chart of the Day

Inflation expectations are stabilizing near 3%, a far cry from the 2% Fed target. In the New York Fed’s August survey, consumers expected future inflation of around 3% across the short-, medium- and longer-term horizons. Median expectations for one year ahead ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. But that conceals a wide range of forecast outcomes, with some consumers remaining leery about future prices. More than 4 in 10 expected that inflation will top 4% in a year’s time, while around 1 in 5 think that, in aggregate, prices will fall over the coming year. — Alexandre Tanzi

What’s Next

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its preliminary benchmark revision to March payrolls on Tuesday.

The producer price index for August will be released on Sept. 10.

The consumer price index for August will be reported Sept. 11.

The Congressional Budget Office will report fiscal data for August on Sept. 11.

Seen Elsewhere

Texas and New York are at the leading edge of a battle over the mailing of abortion pills to patients in states with bans, the New York Times reports.

As part of its deportation program, the Trump administration plans to reopen several prisons closed down years ago amid concerns about violence and neglect, the Washington Post reports.