Balance of Power
By moving to take control of Gaza City, Israel is banking on the surviving Hamas fighters finally giving in. Failing that, the outlook looks bleak for Gaza and the Israeli hostages.
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Israel’s advance into the heart of Gaza City followed weeks of warnings, appeals and threats.

Even as troops and tanks finally rolled in yesterday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Qatar with the aim of putting pressure on Hamas to surrender — an outcome that could avert the total destruction of the Palestinian territory’s de facto capital.

Hamas hasn’t indicated a change in its position, and the death toll and devastation is spiraling. Gaza City had a pre-war population of about 1 million people, with 350,000 having left after Israel announced the assault early last month.

Hamas is open to another ceasefire under which it would exchange some hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Israel, with US backing, wants to end the near two-year war by bringing about the demise of Hamas as an armed governing faction.

The Israelis would prefer to achieve that through a negotiated capitulation of the militant group. Their pessimism about that prospect was illustrated by the army’s prediction that the takeover of central Gaza City — a third of the size of Manhattan — will take months.

WATCH: Dan Williams discusses Israel’s push into Gaza City on Bloomberg TV.

The international community — outside the US — is looking on with a mixture of outrage and impotence, even after a UN-commissioned report this week concluded that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza, which the country denies.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will attend the UN General Assembly in New York next week, where France and Saudi Arabia have presented a resolution to end the conflict based on recognizing a Palestinian state. It’s unlikely that will yield tangible results.

By taking control of Gaza City, Netanyahu’s government is banking on the surviving Hamas fighters finally giving in, their resolve broken by the attempted assassination of senior officials in Doha last week and their stronghold destroyed.

Failing that, the outlook looks bleak for Gaza and the Israeli hostages. Dan Williams

Smoke following a strike in the Gaza Strip yesterday. Photographer: Menaem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Donald Trump is on his second state visit to the UK, where he and First Lady Melania Trump are due to arrive at Windsor Castle for royal pomp and festivities designed to charm the US president. Today’s day of pageantry will be followed by a day of diplomacy and deals, specifically in technology, but with protests called against the president and his MAGA policies, the drumbeat of global and domestic tensions threaten to intrude on the fanfare.

Trump and First Lady Melania disembark from Air Force One at London’s Stansted Airport. Photographer: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

As Narendra Modi celebrates his 75th birthday today, the Indian prime minister’s grip on power appears more secure than ever despite a series of setbacks over the past year that fanned speculation he might finally step aside. Trump said he had a “wonderful” call with Modi yesterday amid recent tension between the two major economies over trade tariffs and New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will meet with Socialist leaders today for pivotal budget talks, seeking to court them with new proposals that may include some iteration of a wealth tax. The party could play a kingmaker role for the government that’s found it impossible to cobble together a mainstream majority in parliament and has lost two prime ministers over an inability to pass the budget.

Demonstrations against Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his government betray an anger that doesn’t bode well for the wider European Union. Protesters allege Vucic undermines democracy and allows corruption to flourish, and they’re demanding early elections, but what they want to come next is far from clear in a country that’s been showered with EU money and yet where polls show only a third of people want to join the bloc.

Student-led protests in Belgrade in June. Photographer: Oliver Bunic/Getty Images

TikTok’s US operations would be acquired by a consortium that includes Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake under a deal Trump is set to discuss with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. The framework agreement, unveiled on Monday after two days of talks in Madrid, would create a US-based version of the popular social media app and resolve a sticking point in Beijing-Washington relations.

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was last week sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for plotting a coup, was rushed to a hospital in the capital Brasilia yesterday after feeling unwell and was due to remain hospitalized overnight.

A cousin of Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stepped down as speaker of the House of Representatives amid allegations of widespread corruption in infrastructure projects that’s fueled public outrage in the Southeast Asian nation.

Momentum is building in Europe to expand the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine, sources say, following additional pressure from Trump and a shift in Germany’s stance.

The Trump administration’s desire to amp up the production of oil, gas and coal while dismantling policies that back clean energy is hurting US competitiveness, according to Al Gore, the former US vice president.

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Chart of the Day

Federal Reserve officials are expected to backstop a faltering US labor market by lowering interest rates by a quarter point today, marking a shift after worries about tariff-induced inflation kept them on hold all year. The policy pivot will take place amid unrelenting pressure from Trump, who has pushed for a “big cut” this week. Fed watchers expect differing views on employment and inflation to keep officials from promising an aggressive pace of cuts. The euro meanwhile hit its strongest level in four years as traders prepare for the Fed’s rate trajectory to diverge from that of the European Central Bank.

And Finally

Climate change fueled scorching temperatures that killed an estimated 16,500 people in European cities this summer, pushing overall heat deaths to more than three times what might otherwise have occurred, according to a new study. The analysis presents an early glimpse at the effects of Europe’s fourth warmest summer on record, in which a series of heatwaves hit countries from Italy to Germany and France. Temperatures reached up to 46C (115F) in Spain and Portugal, and led to the deaths of several outdoor workers in Spain and Italy.

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