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For a glimpse into the future of campaigns, let’s join Rest of World for a look at a recent election in the Indian state of Bihar. Political parties used widely available, very powerful, and reasonably cheap AI tools to reach voters in one of the country’s poorest and most populous states. Some of the tools seem useful and relatively harmless. Consider an AI that can translate campaign messages into a local dialect: A lot of the tools don’t seem harmless at all. “Deepfakes of politicians, journalists, and celebrities endorsing and discrediting candidates, and promising freebies circulated ahead of the election. Videos of candidates campaigning in Bihar even when they were not [there]. ‘It was really confusing for us to know what to believe and what not to,’ said Kumar Singh, 28. ‘I am tech-literate, so I know what AI is, but my parents and grandparents don’t, and the AI content convinced people in my home and neighborhood that these candidates were on the ground, even when they weren’t.’” Cheap and powerful AI campaigns target voters in India. If you don’t see this trend as a major concern, I suppose I won’t be able to convince you otherwise. I’m only human.
+ Of course, like everything involving AI, we’re just scratching the surface of how the technology will be deployed to inform and manipulate voters. AI can be used to assess the most effective message to deliver to any group of voters, create that message, and enhance the delivery of that message. And being 28 and tech literate may not help much when the deluge hits. Technology Review: AI chatbots can sway voters better than political advertisements. “A multi-university team of researchers has found that chatting with a politically biased AI model was more effective than political advertisements at nudging both Democrats and Republicans to support presidential candidates of the opposing party. The chatbots swayed opinions by citing facts and evidence, but they were not always accurate—in fact, the researchers found, the most persuasive models said the most untrue things.” (Maybe we’ve already reached the singularity, because that sounds a whole lot like human politicians.)
+ “’I don’t know much about Harris,’ the voter admitted. ‘... However, with Trump, he is associated with a lot of bad things. So, I do not feel he is trustworthy right now.’ The AI chatbot replied: ‘I completely understand your emphasis on trustworthiness, and it’s a crucial trait for any leader. Let’s delve into this aspect with a nuanced perspective.’ By the conversation’s end, according to a transcript of the exchange, the voter was reconsidering whether to vote at all.’” WaPo (Gift Article): Voters’ minds are hard to change. AI chatbots are surprisingly good at it.
2
Of Strugglers and Smugglers
Cryptocurrency proponents argue that the new money offers faster, cheaper, decentralized transactions that transfer some of the power from massive, centralized banks to individuals, especially those in poorer regions without traditional banking infrastructure. And maybe some of those elements will prove to be as fruitful as the currency has been for investors. For now, crypto definitely seems to being Helping Criminals Launder Money and Evade Sanctions. “Smugglers, money launderers and people facing sanctions once relied on diamonds, gold and artwork to store illicit fortunes. The luxury goods could help hide wealth but were cumbersome to move and hard to spend. Now, criminals have a far more practical alternative: stablecoins, a cryptocurrency tied to the U.S. dollar that exists largely beyond traditional financial oversight.”
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Infrastructure Weak
During the SCOTUS oral arguments on a case to determine whether the president has the power to fire agency heads without cause, Justice Sonia Sotomayor argued: “You’re asking us to destroy the structure of government and to take away from Congress its ability to protect its idea that the government is better structured with some agencies that are independent.” To the current court majority, that sounds like great news. (Don’t worry, once we destroy the structure of government, we’re gonna replace it with a big, beautiful ballroom.) Supreme Court appears poised to rule for Trump on independent agency firings.
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Paramount Rushmore
“Paramount Skydance on Monday launched a hostile bid worth $108.4 billion for Warner Bros Discovery, in a last-ditch effort to outbid Netflix and create a media powerhouse that would challenge the dominance of the streaming giant.” The hostile bidders have a few things going for them when it comes to getting administration approval: The Ellisons, Jared Kushner, and the backing of several Middle Eastern government-run investment funds. The gang’s all here. Warner Bros fight heats up with $108 billion hostile bid from Paramount. Neither of these deals will be particularly good for consumers. So we’re left to root for the least bad option. Welcome to 2025.
+ Deal points, competition, and societal good aside, it is remarkable that Netflix has risen to the point where it can buy Warner Bros. I discussed this last week. “I didn’t know it at the time, but the future of entertainment depended on a single data point shared with me over a cup of coffee in the 90s.”
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Extra, Extra
Soy Vey: WSJ (Gift Article): “The Trump administration is planning to announce $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers, according to administration officials, as the agriculture sector grapples with the fallout from President Trump’s far-reaching tariffs ... The aid will be a shot in the arm to soybean farmers, who have faced devastating financial losses this year.” (Create a problem. Take credit for trying to fix the problem you created. I wonder if FIFA gives a medal for that?)
+ Surplus Sized: “China’s trade surplus in goods this year topped $1 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores the dominance that the country has attained in everything from high-end electric vehicles to low-end T-shirts.”
+ Good Hombres: “The data, which includes ICE arrests from Jan. 20 to Oct. 15, shows that nearly 75,000 people with no criminal records have been swept up in immigration operations that the president and his top officials have said would target murderers, rapists and gang members.”
+ Pardon Variety Hypocrisy: “President Trump promised to crack down on bad behavior in the ticketing and concert industry to help bring down prices for American fans. This past week, though, he pardoned a sports executive in one of his Justice Department’s big battles against the industry, Tim Leiweke.” WSJ(Gift Article): A Round of Golf Changed Trump’s Tone on the Concert Industry. Meanwhile, Trump pardons major drug traffickers despite his anti-drug rhetoric.
+ Grid Pro Quo: “American researchers invented the lithium-ion battery in the 1970s and later showed that the devices could help the electric grid. But for a long time batteries made little headway because grid managers and utility executives dismissed them as expensive and risky.” NYT: Once a Gamble in the Desert, Electric Grid Batteries Are Everywhere.
+ Golden Receivers: The Golden Globe noms are led by One Battle After Another and the White Lotus. Here are all the nominees and the snubs and surprises.
+ Parking Violation: “The US’s National Park Service will offer free admission to US residents on Donald Trump’s birthday in 2026 – which also happens to be Flag Day – but is eliminating the benefit for Martin Luther King Jr Day and Juneteenth.” (I really think these guys are trying to send some kind of message, I just can’t make out what it is...)
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Bottom of the News
“As the years have gone by, the letter has grown in scope. When we sent the first Christmas newsletter, we were just a two-person operation in a small home in Middlebury. Now we have to cover nine busy family members across four states. And sometimes Jessica has a boyfriend.” McSweeney’s: Why We’re Paywalling Our