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Good morning. Syria’s first year without dictator Bashar al-Assad has been marked by diplomatic success and domestic volatility – more on that below, along with the latest on the Air Transat strike and Milan’s shrunken Olympic hockey rink. But first:
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Syrians celebrated the first anniversary of Bashar al-Assad's fall in Damascus yesterday. Yamam Al Shaar/Reuters
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A new era with old fault lines
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Syria is now a full year into its post-Assad era. Last Dec. 8, a rebel command led by Ahmed al-Sharaa – once branded as a global terrorist by the United States – swept unexpectedly into power, ending a 14-year civil war and five decades of ruthless dictatorship by the Assad family. Since then, more than one million refugees have returned to their homes, and President al-Sharaa reversed Syria’s diplomatic isolation through a charm offensive that’s eased Western sanctions.
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But as The Globe’s foreign correspondent Mark MacKinnon discovered on a recent reporting trip, cracks are starting to appear in the new Syria, with outbreaks of sectarian violence, limited economic investment and competing ideas about what it takes to rebuild. He spoke with me about the meaning of Dec. 8 and where Syria goes from here.
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How did Syria mark yesterday’s anniversary?
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There were fireworks, a modest military parade in Damascus and flags all over the country. They reflect the truth that Bashar al-Assad was a horrific dictator, and while there’s lots to criticize with the new Syria, this is a great moment. The country has a chance now to be something different. Every Syrian can tell you exactly where they were last Dec. 8th, and the day will be marked with celebrations for a very long time.
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This year, Ahmed al-Sharaa addressed the UN, sat down with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and met three times with Donald Trump, who even sprayed him with Trump-branded cologne. How has al-Sharaa fashioned his image on the world stage?
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His reinvention is nothing short of incredible. A year ago, we knew him as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of an Islamist fighter group with ties to al-Qaeda, and now he is this international statesman. That speech to the UN was the first one given by a Syrian leader, because the nasty Assad dynasty didn’t get invites to the United Nations General Assembly. So al-Sharaa embodies what Syria is trying to do as a country: transform itself from a divided, war-torn place into something respectable that deserves a spot on the international stage.
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What does al-Sharaa have to show for his diplomatic outreach so far?
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Last week, Canada lifted its designation of Syria as a supporter of terrorism. Most countries in the West have paused their sanctions. But I didn’t see much economic progress when I was there, because it’s still a very unpredictable investing environment. In March, we saw massacres on the Alawite-dominated
Mediterranean coast; in July, there was fighting in the Druze regions. If that violence repeats, it’s very easy for countries to slap their sanctions back on, and that is holding investment back. People still aren’t sure which way Syria will go.
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How much power do Syrians have over that direction? One Alawite businessman told you, “We’ve changed the driver of the bus, but the passengers are the same.”
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People still don’t feel in control of their own fate. There were quasi-elections in October, but MPs were chosen by small electoral committees or appointed by al-Sharaa – so the broad majority of Syrians still haven’t cast a vote in a meaningful election in their lives.
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Donald Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa in the Oval Office last month. -/AFP/Getty Images
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And it’s not just a question of which direction Syria will go, but which direction regional powers will let it go. Israel has established a security zone across southern Syria. Kurdish militias still control the northeast. Iran is seen as inspiring Alawite fighters to attack the new government, and Hezbollah in Lebanon is not happy to have its flow of weapons and money from Iran cut off. Russia has maintained its military presence in Syria. Turkey may have the biggest hand of all in al-Sharaa’s government. It leaves ordinary Syrians wondering what their future will hold.
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What about their past? How is Syria confronting the human toll of Assad’s regime?
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There’s a collision between the need to reckon with that past and a need to focus on the future. I went out with the White Helmets rescue group
in the Daraa region, where the civil war began. There was this factory that had been destroyed during the war, and the town is trying to use the remaining bricks for a desperately needed bakery. As they were installing water and electricity lines, they uncovered bits of skull and other bones. The White Helmets wanted to figure out who was buried there, and the town didn’t want to stop building the bakery.
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You can understand both sides of that issue. Syria has so much trauma, all around the country. They can spend their lives talking about what happened and who’s to blame, or they can build. And the struggle between these two needs will define a lot of what happens in the years ahead.
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What did Syrians tell you about their hopes for what happens next?
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The biggest thing I heard is that Syria needs to develop a new identity for its people. For five decades, you were either in the Assad regime, which was dominated by the Alawite minority, or you were persecuted by it. This year, some of the attacks on Christians, Druze and Alawites have involved fighters affiliated with al-Sharaa’s government, which is supported by the Sunni majority. So we’ve gone from having a majority that lived in fear to having minorities living in fear, and it’s hard to call that progress.
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The civil war drove a lot of elites out of the country, and now they’re coming back. One of the most interesting characters in the new Syria is Hind Kabawat, a Syrian-Canadian who is
the Minister for Social Affairs and Labour. She’s the only woman and only religious minority in the new cabinet, and she’s trying to nudge it in a more inclusive direction that will make people feel less afraid of their government. It’s too soon to judge how this is going, and it’s been a troubling year – but you have to remember the absolute basement that Syria started in. People are celebrating this anniversary because it is so, so much better than it was a year ago.
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This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
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