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Breaking: In what would be an extraordinary move by the federal government, the FCC is preparing to order an early review of Disney's eight ABC station licenses. Details down below...

A repeat of Kimmelgate?

"This was like déjà vu for me today," Jimmy Kimmel said in his Monday night monologue, describing the Trump administration's latest pressure campaign to get him fired by ABC.

Last time, it was FCC chair Brendan Carr who threatened ABC, wielding the heavy hand of government in a way that most Americans disagreed with.

This time, it was President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump, creating an even more dramatic confrontation between the government and ABC, and thus Disney, one of the biggest media companies in the world.

But something is different this time around. The power dynamics seem to have shifted. Crucially, the local TV station ownership groups that condemned Kimmel's liberal commentary last September have stayed silent this week.

Kimmel's show went ahead as scheduled last night. None of the ABC affiliates preempted it. This morning, the Trump White House stepped up the pressure even more, with WH comms director Steven Cheung calling Kimmel a "shit human being" and saying "ABC needs to fire him immediately."

But that's simply not going to happen. My sense from sources in and around Disney is that the company is ready for this fight.

And make no mistake: It's going to be a long fight. The FCC is preparing to take action that will be widely seen as retaliatory.

So, this is new Disney CEO Josh D'Amaro's first big Trump test, but it's coming at a time when Trump's political leverage has weakened. 

Last fall, Trump entered the first Kimmel fight with political inertia. This spring, as his approval rating sinks and the midterms approach, some institutions have been showing more willingness to push back.

And many Americans are paying attention. Kimmel's monologue from last night has already surpassed 2.5 million views on YouTube. 

Let's get into all the angles here...

Why this time is different

I know you remember what happened last September: When conservatives denounced Kimmel's remark about the alleged Charlie Kirk killer, and Carr threatened ABC affiliates, two politically conservative station groups, Nexstar and Sinclair, said they'd preempt the show.

Their actions led many to conclude that the station owners were making a political calculation — trying to curry favor with the Trump administration while seeking FCC approval for deals — though the companies denied that.

ABC, facing a local station rebellion and wanting to lower the political temperature, decided to suspend Kimmel's show "indefinitely." And the backlash to that decision was severe.

Ultimately, Disney ticked off both Trump opponents by benching Kimmel and then Trump fans by allowing him back on the air less than a week later. Let's just say this was seen inside Disney as a suboptimal handling of the situation.

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Free speech and presidential criticism ultimately prevailed in "Kimmelgate." And the episode reaffirmed that the national network has more power than the affiliates. Sinclair, for instance, told ABC it should hire a "network-wide independent ombudsman." ABC, to my knowledge, has not done so.

But ABC has privately emphasized that it will enforce its station affiliation agreements, according to a source close to the company. If station owners preempt Kimmel's show, they could be in breach of those agreements. 

Maybe that's why Nexstar and Sinclair's ABC affiliates still aired the show last night. The Trump-friendly execs who run the companies may privately detest Kimmel, but they're having to consider many factors, including legal contracts. 

Plus — and this is a crucial detail — last September, Nexstar was awaiting Trump admin approval of its Tegna takeover bid and a waiver of a broadcaster ownership rule. Last month, Nexstar won those approvals.

Now the political tables have turned, and Democratic state attorneys general are in court trying to stop the deal. As CNN media analyst and Axios media correspondent Sara Fischer pointed out to me this morning, Nexstar preempting Kimmel today could factor into the antitrust lawsuit as an example of a company blocking consumer access to programming. Not a good look in front of a judge.

Nexstar declined my request for comment this morning. Sinclair has not responded.

POV from inside Disney

So what's going on inside Disney right now? I'm still working on reporting out that part of the story. ABC hasn't said a word about Kimmel – which means it has not issued any full-throated defense of him – but actions speak louder than words, and airing the show last night was the strongest defense of all.

My sources at ABC and Disney are well aware that the MAGA media attacks against Kimmel are not in good faith. Cheung tweeted this morning that Kimmel made a "disgusting joke about assassinating the President." Kimmel did no such thing. His "expectant widow" bit about the first lady was, as he said last night, "about the fact that [Trump is] almost 80 and she's younger than I am."

Of course, after a gunman ran toward the Hilton ballroom last Saturday, Trump and his allies have recontextualized the joke as a call to violence. But it wasn't. 

My sources at the company are also well aware of the hypocrisy at play here. As CNN's Aaron Blake put it, "a month ago, Trump unabashedly celebrated the death of a perceived political foe. Today, his White House is calling Democrats a 'cult of hatred.'"

The White House was careful at first...

Yesterday, Karoline Leavitt repeated Trump's statement that we must "resolve our differences peacefully." True. But the way to do that is through speech, including the speech the administration wants to silence. There is a clear effort to use Saturday's shooting to stifle dissent – and lots of powerful pushback.

With regard to Kimmel, I found it noteworthy that the initial statements from the Trump White House yesterday were carefully worded not to explicitly tell ABC what to do. First Lady Melania Trump urged ABC to "take a stand," but didn't say how. Publicly rebuke Kimmel? Make him say sorry? Suspend him? I think the first lady's team knowingly left it vague because a more specific demand would be decried as government censorship.

I mentioned that on CNN yesterday afternoon, and then anchor Boris Sanchez broke the news to me that Trump had just posted on Truth Social, explicitly saying ABC should fire Kimmel. That's what led to the funny/cringey clip of me that Kimmel showed in his monologue