Good afternoon, here is today’s edition of FT Edit, your daily slice of the FT.

For one summer, every four years, I am a football fan, fully versed in passing and possession metrics, the merits of any given line-up, the madness of VAR — and deeply invested in the outcome. So, who will win this year’s World Cup? Simon Kuper, who has attended every one of the tournaments since 1990, offers one of the most knowledgable, considered takes you’re likely to find. Read the full story then have your say ➼

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Today's FT Edit edition

US stock market to stop shrinking for first time in 23 years News | Market debuts of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI plus slowing buybacks could remove vital support for equities, investors warn

The unlikely corporate winners of AI In-depth | Caterpillar and Hochtief are among once-staid ‘picks and shovels’ companies lifted by the data centre boom

Why the world must agree to regulate AI FT Ideas | A technological disarmament pact between the US and China would make everyone feel more secure, writes Martin Wolf

Germany’s €100bn bid to make the trains run on time The Big Read | The country’s railway renewal is the first test of whether Europe’s largest economy can reverse years of decline

‘You can’t fly planes that are empty’: Airlines draw up cuts for ‘ugly’ winter News | Fears of stubbornly high jet fuel prices overshadow annual industry gathering

Do black holes do more than devour matter? Insight | The supermassive one at the centre of our galaxy is surprisingly windy — spitting material out as well as taking it in, writes Anjana Ahuja

Simon Kuper’s World Cup: Who will win? Football tournament’s structure favours randomness but history suggests a western European winner

Jpegs transformed the art market — was it for the better? Life & Arts | The rise of digital reproduction has made artworks more accessible than ever — but has it also diminished the experience of seeing them in person?