Awaiting Warsh’s Debut. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close above 52,000 today for the first time ever, but the tech sector’s disappointing performance kept the other big indexes in the red.

The markets seemed to take a bit of a breather on Tuesday after a three-day run. The Dow rose 332 points, or 0.6%, to finish at a record high. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.2%, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.6%

Despite the downward slide of oil prices, trading ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision was relatively “light and featureless,” writes Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab. The news that housing starts fell sharply and import prices rose in May likely didn’t help indexes.

Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chairman is the big event tomorrow (more on that below), but the U.S. Census is also set to release a significant economic barometer on Wednesday morning: May retail sales. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect sales to grow by 0.6% in May. The same pace of growth is expected for sales excluding motor vehicles & parts.

But not everyone is expecting the May dataset to contain good news. The Chicago Fed’s final advance retail trade summary forecast, released Tuesday as a preview of the official Census data, estimated that sales excluding autos declined by -0.2% month over month in May.

Whether May sales come in at consensus or not, economists will be watching retail numbers carefully over the next few months for signs that households are under pressure as tax refunds fade and inflation eats into wage growth. That could signal a potential spending pullback in the months ahead.

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The least interesting aspect of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee will be its decision on interest rates. Instead, the focus will be what officials signal on rate policy for the months ahead—and on Fed Chairman Warsh’s performance at the post-meeting news conference.

The committee is widely expected to keep the benchmark federal-funds rate target steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, despite President Donald Trump previously indicating he expects lower interest rates. Still, with an unpopular war boosting inflation, Trump may not have much leverage to criticize the central bank’s decisions, and the Fed’s policy statement is expected to drop any implication that its next move will be a rate cut.

The FOMC is also set to update their summary of economic projections, which will be closely watched following the news of a deal that would end hostilities in the Middle East. The latest forecast will likely still show officials expect inflation to trend higher than previous estimates for the year. If the concerns around elevated inflation prove more broad-based among committee members, the median forecast for the fed funds rate could also shift higher—signaling interest rate hike, rather than cuts, are squarely on the table.

Beyond the forecasts, the dot plot (which tracks what each individual member of the Fed believes the federal-funds rate will be at the end of the year) will also be in focus. There likely will be at least three dots projecting that rates will increase by a quarter to a half of a percentage point by the end of the year. If more than half of the committee forecasts rates will be above the current 3.6% median rate, it could serve as a more serious signal that interest rate hikes are likely. Fewer would indicate a more dovish bent.

But while there should be 19 dots on the plot, one for each member of the FOMC, Warsh might opt not to participate. He has criticized this Fed tool in the past.

Warsh, who comes to the Fed armed with a self-proclaimed reform agenda, is expected to push for shakeups at the relatively staid institution. But many expect some of his biggest ambitions to take time to implement. Bottom line: don’t expect a lot of fireworks tomorrow. Still, the news conference is expected to provide investors and Fed watchers with a better sense of Warsh’s priorities, and hopefully provide some guidance on what changes to expect in the months ahead.

CarMax and Jabil announce earnings tomorrow.

The Census Bureau reports retail and food service sales for May. The consensus estimate predicts a 0.5% month-over-month increase, matching the April data. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales are expected to rise 0.3%, two-tenths of a percentage point less than in the prior month.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision at 2 p.m. Eastern. The central bank is widely expected to leave the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. The FOMC members will also release their Summary of Economic Projections.

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