Good evening. Tonight we’re unpacking the politics of the Iran war.
The Iran war (for now) dominates the midterm conversation
As gas prices spike, war in the Middle East rages and economic anxiety simmers among many voters, I’ve been thinking about a line I heard from an on-the-fence Philadelphia voter in the lead-up to the 2024 election. “I don’t care about what goes on overseas,” she said. “I care about where I live.” A lot of working-class voters felt that way in 2024 — disillusioned by the Biden administration’s focus abroad, frustrated by the soaring cost of living at home. Many backed Donald Trump that year, or skipped the election altogether. As the war in Iran enters its second week, the big risk for Trump and his party is that voters see them in the same light they once saw the Democrats: as more invested (literally and figuratively) in foreign affairs than in the pocketbook issues that feel most urgent in their lives. Of course, this president is famously unpredictable, and today he declared to CBS News that the war against Iran “is very complete, pretty much.” We’ll see. Even just today, he contradicted himself, telling Republican lawmakers in a speech that the U.S. “will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.” But in the meantime, here’s a look at how both political parties have been approaching an issue upending the midterm elections. What Democrats are sayingSome leading Democrats are certainly pushing the narrative that Trump and Republicans are too focused on matters abroad while pursuing policies that make life more expensive at home. “The country is in the midst of a devastating affordability crisis,” Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House leader from New York, wrote on social media. “Republicans haven’t done a damn thing to solve that problem. But they are willing to spend billions to drop bombs in the Middle East.” Of course, Democratic lawmakers and candidates have a wide range of objections to the war: opposition to regime change and the prospect of a protracted conflict; fury at Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes together; anger over the deaths of American service members; concerns about the role of Congress; and questions about what the end game might be (amid ever-evolving answers from Trump). A handful of Democrats have focused more on highlighting what they see as the threat Iran poses, even if they share some of the concerns their colleagues have raised. But above all, watch for the economic messaging as a key through line, especially when it comes to rising gas prices tied to the war. What Republicans are sayingRepublicans, too, would like to be discussing economic issues, as my colleague Michael Gold reported today from House Republicans’ annual policy retreat, held at Trump’s golf club in Doral, Fla. Whether Trump will let them is a different question. There are a few factors at play, as Michael explains. But one of them is the war overshadowing everything else. For the most part, Republicans — both politicians and voters — have backed Trump’s Iran approach so far. “We must destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers, missile factories, and navy, and ensure the regime never gets a nuclear weapon,” Senator Dave McCormick, a Pennsylvania Republican, wrote on social media over the weekend. “We must finish the job and end Iran’s ability to threaten the US and our allies.” But some have objected. Most prominently, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has long clashed with Trump on a range of issues, has been an outspoken critic of the U.S. attacks on Iran. He faces a Trump-backed challenger in his May primary race, which, as we said earlier this year after the U.S. captured the leader of Venezuela, is going to test G.O.P. voters’ appetites for intervention abroad and Trump dissent at home. The Republican Jewish Coalition has already released an ad slamming Massie on the subject, saying he “stands with Iran and radical leftists in Congress,” my colleague Tim Balk reported. Massie turned it into a fund-raising appeal. What the polls are sayingThe polling is quite clear: A majority of Americans disapprove of the U.S. military action in Iran, and both Democratic and independent voters are skeptical — even if Republicans are generally supportive. But Democrats should not assume that all of these rough Republican numbers mean that voters therefore now adore them. A new NBC News poll asked voters whether they had a positive or negative view of a number of public figures, groups and places. Iran polled the worst, on net. The second worst? The Democratic Party.
In Mississippi, a younger Democrat mounts a challengeEvan Turnage was a year old when Bennie Thompson was first elected to Congress in 1993. A few decades later, Turnage, a 34-year-old lawyer, is challenging Thompson, 78, the longest-serving Black Democrat in Mississippi, as part of a growing list of younger candidates going after older incumbents, my colleague Emily Cochrane reports. Their primary race is tomorrow. Got a tip? NUMBER OF THE DAY 19 percentThat’s the share of all reported federal campaign contributions in 2024 that were made by billionaires, a New York Times analysis shows. Five presidential elections ago, that number was almost zero. QUOTE OF THE DAY
“People are baptizing their partisanship and calling it Christianity.”That’s James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas. He spoke to my colleagues Lisa Lerer and Elizabeth Dias about how he hopes to counter what he sees as a conservative takeover of the American church. ONE LAST THING Candidates to A.I. and crypto: Please fund us!Entering this year with nearly $250 million combined to spend on politics, the A.I. and crypto industries have inserted themselves into the minds — and pockets — of candidates willing to back their interests. Candidates have found creative ways to solicit support from A.I.- and crypto-backed super PACs, my colleague Shane Goldmacher writes, by filling out industry questionnaires, writing social media posts, and peppering their websites with niche yet telling phrases that signal their friendliness to the two industries. Taylor Robinson and Tara Terranova contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up |
