A Tale of Two Markets. The stock market mounted its biggest comeback in nearly a year after President Donald Trump suggested the war in Iran could be over sooner than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 239 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 rallied 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4%.

Stocks opened the day down sharply after crude oil futures neared $120 a barrel before pulling back from those highs.

At its low earlier in the day, the Dow was down nearly 1.9%, while the S&P 5oo and Nasdaq were down 1.5%. For the S&P and Dow, it was the largest reversal from an intraday low to positive territory since April 30, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Oil prices were already easing off their highs (more on that below) but the global benchmarks tumbled after the president told a reporter that the war with Iran was “very far” ahead of a four-to-five week timeline previously provided by the White House.

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump said, according to Weijia Jiang of CBS. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”

The comments sent stocks surging into the close, with investors seemingly worried about missing out on any post-war rally. The president appeared to dampen some of Wall Street’s exuberance during a press conference after the close, though.

“We could call it a tremendous success right now,” Trump said. “Or we could go further—and we’re going to go further.”

Asked if he thinks the war would be over this week, he said: “No. But soon. Very soon.”

Futures tracking the major indexes were down 0.3% at last check.

-	Last	Chg%
↑ Dow Jones Industrial Average	47,740.80	+0.50%
↑ S&P 500 Index	6,795.99	+0.83%
↑ NASDAQ Composite Index	22,695.95	+1.38%

3/9/2026, 8:00:22 PM ET

The Hot Stock: Sandisk +11.6%
The Biggest Loser: Paramount Skydance -6.7%

Best Sector: Technology +1.8%
Worst Sector: Financials -0.5%

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Oil’s Big Swing

The major crude oil benchmarks nearly hit $120 a barrel overnight. Then came the big swing.

Futures for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate traded as high as $119.50 a barrel following news of production cuts and the latest escalations in the Middle East, my Barron’s colleagues Avi Salzman and Callum Keown write. The Group of Seven helped ease some of that spike. They explain:

Prices slipped below $100 later in the day after several countries met and said they were prepared to use their oil stockpiles to keep the market well-supplied. The consortium, known as the G-7, includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The president’s comments to CBS sent things tumbling further. Brent was recently down to $89.79 a barrel, while WTI was at $88.17. Oil will continue to be the market’s main driver this week. Avi and Callum write:

Oil and natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted by the war, largely because Middle Eastern energy exports are struggling to move through key shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s supply of both commodities flows each day, is effectively blocked. Roughly 16 million barrels a day of crude and oil products can’t get to customers, according to Citi analysts. Middle Eastern producers have started to turn off production because they have nowhere to put the oil. Kuwait and the U.A.E. became the latest countries to signal a reduction in oil output on Saturday, after Iraq slashed production last week.

The G-7 could work through the International Energy Agency, which represents 32 oil-consuming nations, to coordinate a release of some of the 1.2 billion barrels worth of oil they have stockpiled. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Monday that in addition to the 1.2 billion barrels in government-controlled storage, nations have access to another 600 million barrels worth of industry stockpiles.

Releasing barrels from strategic reserves could cover the gap, but only for a limited period. “We will see what impact this can make but the duration and intensity of the conflict will still be far and away the most important driver,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said early Monday.

You can get the full story from Avi and Callum here.

The Calendar

Oracle and BioNTech report quarterly results tomorrow.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for February.

What We’re Reading Today

• Hims & Hers Stock Soars. Its Weight-Loss Drug Battle With Novo Nordisk Takes a Surprising Twist.

• Berkshire Buyback News Undercut Its Ability to Repurchase Stock Cheaply

• Investors Are Fleeing Private Credit. Trump Has Big Plans for It.

• Nasdaq Moves a Step Closer to Tokenized Stocks. 24/7 Trading Is Coming Soon.

• HPE Boosts Outlook. Prices ‘Will Continue to Go Up,’ as Memory Costs Rise, CEO Says.

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