Good morning. Water, not oil, could be the resource most at risk in the war with Iran – more on that below, along with Ottawa’s defence spending and The Globe’s Oscar predictions. But first:

• Israel may be splitting Lebanon in two, Lebanese cabinet minister says
• Some Iranians hoped the war would bring regime change. Now they doubt it
• Carney’s position on Middle East, absence from take-note debate criticized by Opposition MPs

It took 10 days of war in Iran to drive oil prices to their highest level in four years. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shuttered, choking the flow of Middle Eastern fuel and forcing countries in the region to curb their production, crude prices reached almost US$120 a barrel yesterday before falling back. U.S. officials worry that Israeli strikes on Iranian fuel depots – several were hit late Saturday night – may tip prices even higher. Evidently the markets get spooked by images of oil-filled rain falling from Tehran’s sky.

Iran is more than willing to use surging energy prices as leverage, banking that rising costs could compel the U.S. and Israel to back down from their attacks. “If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 a barrel, continue this game,” a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned on state TV this weekend. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the military campaign at a D.C. ceremony yesterday, accusing the Islamic Republic of “trying to hold the world hostage.”

But oil isn’t the only weapon in the country’s arsenal. On Sunday, Bahrain said Iran’s drones damaged its desalination plant, marking the first time the Islamic Republic had struck at a neighbour’s water supply. Hundreds of desalination plants stretch along the Persian Gulf coast – all of them within reach of Iranian drones and missiles. If those facilities collapse, 100 million people across the region would lose their lifeline to drinking water.

Short supply

Countries in the Gulf have to contend with extremely dry climates, few lakes or rivers, rare precipitation and depleting reserves of groundwater because of climate change. As a result, they’re massively dependent on vast quantities of water pumped from desalination plants, which remove the salt from briny seawater. Desalination is crucial for the Gulf’s flashy tourism draws: Without it, there’d be no golf courses in Riyadh, no ski resorts in Dubai, no World Cup in Qatar. But the plants also keep the Gulf’s rapidly growing cities hydrated.

In Kuwait, about 90 per cent of the drinking water comes from desalination; in Saudi Arabia, it’s roughly 70 per cent, and in Oman, closer to 86 per cent. Bahrain and Qatar are pretty much wholly reliant on desalination technology for their water needs, and have little by way of backup reserves. If Iranian strikes knocked their plants offline, they’d run out of drinking water within days.

Dangerous targets

Desalination facilities have come under fire in previous conflicts. During the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War, for example, Iraqi forces sabotaged most of Kuwait’s plants as they retreated, severely damaging the country’s water supply. Kuwait was left dependent on emergency imports from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, along with American mobile desalination units. Total recovery took years.

The trouble for the Gulf today is that its desalination plants are usually connected to power stations, making them even more vulnerable targets. Disruptions can cascade across systems: Attacks on electrical infrastructure wind up taking out the drinking water, too.

“It’s an asymmetrical tactic,” said David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Iran doesn’t have the same capacity to strike back at the United States and Israel. But it does have this possibility to impose costs on the Gulf countries.” With enough damage, those countries could be pushed to intervene in the conflict – or demand the U.S. and Israel end their war.

The Globe’s Barry Hertz has a bit of help for your Oscars pool. Here are his best guesses for who will win at the Academy Awards on Sunday – and who should really be taking home the golden statue.