Washington, DC

1. Trump’s fuzzy Iran timetable
2. School bombing scrutiny
3. Trump blames Iran for strike
4. Major jam in Congress
5. Lack of China trip planning
6. MTG replacement watch

PDB: A ‘friendly takeover’ of Cuba?

Witkoff, Kushner scrap Israel trip … Saudi Aramco CEO says war could have ‘catastrophic consequences’ for oil … G7 energy ministers to meet today

Trump gives shifting timetable on Iran war

President Donald Trump is offering little clarity to his party on several fronts. House Republicans gave the president one of their loudest rounds of applause Monday night as he declared the war in Iran would be a “short-term excursion” — only to imply later it might not be so short, while his comments that the war was “very complete, pretty much” sent oil prices lower. Trump laid out a roller coaster timetable for military operations at House Republicans’ annual policy retreat, Semafor’s Nicholas Wu reports from Doral. And if Republicans came to Trump National looking for clarity on the domestic front as they weigh another filibuster-skirting megabill, Trump didn’t put his thumb on the scale, instead saying his “biggest plea” was to pass a revised version of the SAVE America voting bill. House GOP leaders are looking to project unity as they craft their legislative agenda for the year.

GOP scrutiny of Iran school strike

Republicans want answers on the bombing of an Iranian school that killed 175 people, which appears to have been caused by a US Tomahawk missile, according to a video reported by Bellingcat and analyzed by The New York Times. “We should learn everything we can about it. It’s tragic, it’s sad. It’s the kind of thing that happens in every war. And this is a war,” Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., told Semafor. He predicted lawmakers “will be asking probing questions so that we can ensure that we minimize these sorts of casualties and errors.” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said the administration “ought to get to the bottom of it for sure. And admit if we know whose fault it is and do everything we can to eliminate those mistakes going forward.” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., thinks an investigation will “find it’s a horrible mistake.”

— Burgess Everett

Trump deflects on school strike blame

Trump doubled down on his claims that Iran may have bombed the girls’ school in the country before hedging that he doesn’t “know enough” about the strike. “The Tomahawk … is sold and used by other countries,” Trump said when asked about the Times’ analysis, suggesting Iran “or somebody else” could be responsible. The president hinted at other war plans Monday, telling aides that he would back the killing of new Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, per The Wall Street Journal, and declining to rule out taking Iran’s oil in a call with NBC. He also threatened to strike “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if Iran obstructed the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic remains paralyzed. Meanwhile, the US ordered more diplomats to leave the region, and a top Iranian official told CNN Tehran is preparing for an extended conflict, even as it slows its attacks on Gulf neighbors.

— Shelby Talcott and Morgan Chalfant

DC gets jammed up with gridlock

Gridlock is descending on Washington. Senate Democrats are threatening to jam up the Senate floor with Iran votes, the Department of Homeland Security is still shut down, and Trump says he’ll stop any legislation (except for DHS funding) until he gets ID and citizenship requirements for voting. Republicans are taking that last threat pretty seriously. “That is his prerogative. I suspect that might happen. And I respect it,” said Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, a proponent of the SAVE America voting proposal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he finds it “very hard” to envision passing that bill by forcing Democrats to enact a talking filibuster because of the party unity required, though. “I hate to go through all the pain and suffering and self-flagellation for something that’s not going to work,” said Cramer.

— Burgess Everett

Trump’s scattershot China trip plans

Planning for Trump’s state visit to China is still scattershot as the administration remains fixated on the Iran war, Semafor’s Andy Browne and Liz Hoffman write. There’s no final list of officials and executives joining Trump in Beijing, for instance; the lack of particulars reflects the significant gulf that remains between the countries and a stark difference in approach between the generally last-minute preparation of the Trump administration and the careful planning of Chinese officials. The visit — now just weeks away — is supposed to build on a trade truce agreed in October, when Trump last met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. And sources acknowledged that the ambition and the planning of the visit could kick into overdrive should the president demand it. It came as official Chinese data Tuesday showed the country’s exports surged 22% in the first two months of 2026 compared with the previous year, suggesting Beijing is weathering Washington’s tariffs better than forecast.

Georgia to pick MTG successor

Northwest Georgia voters will start picking a successor to former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene today, winnowing down a field of 17 candidates, mostly Republicans. Trump endorsed local District Attorney Clayton Fuller for the seat, frustrating former state Sen. Colton Moore, a MAGA loyalist who battled Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis over her prosecution of 2020 election conspiracies. But both candidates are conservatives who say they won’t stray from Trump like Greene did. Moore’s ads remix some of Trump’s past praise for him into an apparent endorsement, and claim that he was “arrested for defending” the president, while Fuller’s called for ICE agents to receive medals and more funding. The winner will face Democrat Shawn Harris, who lost to Greene in 2024 while Trump was winning the district by 37 points.

— David Weigel

Blindspot: Pahlavi and Ogles

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Iranian crown prince, told Fox News that the regime is “crumbling” following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

What the Right isn’t reading: Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., is facing widespread outrage after posting that “Muslims don’t belong in American society.”

Semafor Washington, DC is expanding to twice a day, with an afternoon edition of the must-read email briefing. This new edition harnesses the expertise and intelligence of our extremely well-sourced Semafor Washington, DC team, now strengthened by new congressional reporter Nicholas Wu. Delivered to inboxes every weekday around 4:30 pm ET, the afternoon edition delivers a sharp snapshot of the day’s developments driving Washington and a clear-eyed preview of the narrative shaping the next 12 hours. Sign up for our twice-daily briefing here.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Senate Republicans want to move fast on Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s, R-Okla. nomination to lead DHS, with a confirmation hearing penciled in for March 18.

Playbook: Their Israel trip today may have been cancelled, but President Trump doesn’t believe his special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are overworked. “They don’t have too much… They actually have — they have capacity for more, to be honest with you,” he said.

Axios: The Trump administration rejected an offer from Ukraine last August to sell the US technology for downing Iranian attack drones — only to reverse course last week, with two US officials describing it as one of the biggest tactical miscalculations of the war so far.

WaPo: “Typically, even partial government shutdowns cause panic that consumes Congress, overshadowing other issues. That just hasn’t happened during this partial shutdown.”

White House

• The White House said it fired a Republican NTSB member after getting reports of “inappropriate alcohol use” on the job and “harassment of staff.”

Congress

• Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., questioned why the US should “do a defense agreement” with Saudi Arabia if it doesn’t join the war against Iran.

Outside the Beltway

• A former speaker of the Missouri state House was sentenced to prison for fraud.
• Alexander Butterfield, the former White House aide who exposed President Richard Nixon’s secret taping system after the Watergate scandal and accelerated his resignation, died at 99.

Inside the Beltway

• Federal workers are suing DHS for firing them after they were filmed during a sting operation by activist James O’Keefe.

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