If all it takes is hearing the promise of “very soon” to trigger a $40 swing in global crude markets on Tuesday, then perhaps it’s safe to say investors simply aren’t prepared for the headline risk this U.S.-Iran conflict is currently generating. Those words also reversed a 100-point decline in the S&P 500, and pulled most major indexes back into the green.

President Donald Trump delivered a host of mixed messages on the U.S. aims in Iran, the extent of the damage caused by 10 days of strikes in the region, and the status of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, but his hint that the war will be over “very soon,” delivered from his resort in Doral, Florida, is the one investors are clinging to.

And perhaps they’re right to. Trump’s crisis playbook has been remarkably predictable during his time in the White House: a major policy aim (such as tariffs) is followed by market upheaval, then a watering down from the White House, then a significant rebound.

Monday’s massive spike in oil prices, which took U.S. crude prices to the highest in nearly four years just months ahead of midterm elections that are almost certain to focus on affordability, and then tumbled nearly 25% as the president signaled his desire to end the conflict, followed that well-worn path.

Whether Trump’s words will hold through the end of the week, or indeed the next trading session, remain to be seen. Iran is still launching counter strikes, Hormuz is still at a standstill, and oil remains within a few bad hours of $100 a barrel again.

For the moment, however, Trump’s search for an off-ramp to an unpopular and expensive war seems just enough to bring the bulls, or at least the bargain hunters, back to the market.

—Martin Baccardax

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Rising gasoline prices dominate headlines, but diesel is the fuel sending the more troubling signal for the economy. It has risen sharply because of the Iran conflict. Refinery outages in parts of the Middle East, reduced runs across Asia, and shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have squeezed supplies.

• Diesel futures are up roughly 76% so far this year. At $3.74 a gallon, they’re highest since Fall 2023. And the margins refiners earn producing diesel have jumped about $20 a barrel in a week to roughly $44, according to Tudor Pickering & Holt.

• Second-quarter diesel cracks, or the difference between the price of oil and the price of the refined fuel, have climbed roughly $22, Tudor Pickering says. Diesel powers trucks, trains, ships, construction equipment, and farm machinery, embedding the cost of it throughout the supply chain.

• Higher diesel prices, therefore, show up first in production and transportation costs before reaching consumers. Food is a clear example. USDA researchers have found that rising diesel prices push up retail prices for staples such as potatoes, apples, and tomatoes through transportation costs.

• The Iran conflict threatens the logistics of moving oil and refined products through the Persian Gulf, one of the world’s most important energy transit corridors. Energy economist Philip Verleger estimates disruptions tied to the conflict could remove 5% to 12% of global diesel consumption.

What’s Next: U.S. shale oil yields large amounts of gasoline but relatively little diesel. As diesel markets tightened, refiners began bidding aggressively for those barrels. Mars crude from the Gulf of Mexico now trades nearly $10 a barrel above WTI instead of its usual discount, boosting outlooks for refiners like Valero Energy.

—Laura Sanicola

Major U.S. airlines also are navigating higher fuel costs—a byproduct of the war in Iran—and the potential for travel disruptions just in time for spring break because of a government funding stalemate. Spot jet fuel prices have shot up 60 cents a gallon since the end of February.

• Jet fuel reached $4.19 a gallon in Los Angeles and $3.92 a gallon in New York Harbor, according to OPIS, an energy data and analytics company that shares an owner with Barron’s. TD Cowen’s Tom Fitzgerald to cut price targets for airline stocks, citing squeezed profit margins.

• Fitzgerald says that although airlines can recapture some of the spike in fuel prices, margin expansion would be hard to envision this year unless there is a rapid drop in energy prices. Crude oil fell back down to around $91 a barrel for the international standard on Monday after spiking overnight.

• United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has told CNBC that rising fuel prices will have a meaningful effect on its first-quarter earnings results, adding that the increases to fuel costs will make their way into airfares quickly. 

• Air travelers are also dealing with hourslong lines at some U.S. airports, including Houston and Atlanta, where the Transportation Security Administration faces staffing shortages. TSA workers have been on the job without pay because of a federal government shutdown.

What’s Next: Fitzgerald expects airline executives will use an investor conference next week to update their first-quarter guidance or even pull their full-year outlooks. Other than fuel costs, the airline industry has had some positive momentum so far this year, he noted.

—Janet H. Cho

Hims & Hers has sparred with Novo Nordisk for months over the Danish drugmaker’s refusal to sell weight-loss drugs on the telehealth provider’s platform, but their feud seems to have reached its end. Novo Nordisk agreed to sell Ozempic and Wegovy injectables and a Wegovy pill through Hims’ online pharmacy.

• Hims currently sells knockoff versions of the drug semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, using a legal framework that allows it to circumvent Food and Drug Administration approval. As part of the agreement, it won’t advertise those GLP-1 offerings. 

• That makes Hims yet another telehealth provider selling branded drugs, like Ro, which sells Eli Lilly’s Zepbound through its online pharmacy. Advertising has been a crucial way for Hims to differentiate itself from big pharmaceutical companies, whose drugs it previously claimed are “priced for profits, not patients.”

• Hims and Novo have an on-again, off-again relationship, and previously pledged to sell branded Wegovy through a collaboration in April 2025. But that deal only lasted a month. Novo officially dropped Hims in June and accused the company of “deceptive promotion” and selling knockoff versions of Wegovy.

• Just last month, Hims canceled the introduction of a low-cost semaglutide pill, which would have competed with Novo’s own oral obesity medication. Novo simultaneously filed a lawsuit against Hims for selling knockoffs that evade FDA review.

What’s Next: With Monday’s agreement, Novo said it would dismiss the patent infringement lawsuit against Hims, but reserve the right to refile in the future. The FDA has promised to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs.

—Mackenzie Tatananni and George Glover

Software giant Oracle faces a big test of confidence when it delivers a progress update on its transition into a cloud company, which started several years ago. The company is at a crucial juncture so its stock will likely react to third-quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon when it will give a progress update

• Wall Street analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, up from $1.47 a year earlier. They are projecting sales growth of 20% to $16.9 billion. The return to rapid growth has been driven by the cloud pivot. 

• From fiscal year 2012 through 2020, Oracle sales grew at a 1% annualized rate, but growth has accelerated since then. The company then began to offer cloud-based versions of its software after years of resisting the shift. Last quarter, sales of cloud applications rose by 11% from a year earlier.

• Another part of the shift has been offering servers for rent in the cloud, a business pioneered by Amazon Web Services that now includes Microsoft, Alphabet and a host of smaller “neoclouds” such as CoreWeave. Powered by a $300 billion multiyear contract with AI leader OpenAI, this business posted revenue growth of 68% last quarter.

• But the cloud sales growth comes at a high cost. Though operating cash flow remained strong in the past 12 months, it was dwarfed by capital expenditure. In the first six months of fiscal 2026, Oracle’s debt and lease liabilities rose by $23 billion.

What’s Next: Oracle expects to raise up to $50 billion through 2026 via equity and debt sales, but is also reported to be planning thousands of job cuts. Investors will be looking to OpenAI’s planned initial public offering later this year to relieve concerns about Oracle’s finances.

—Adam Levine and Alex Kozul-Wright

Sluggish sales growth and shifting consumer habits are drawing more activist investors to packaged food companies and restaurants. The latest example is hedge fund Starboard Value, which has built a sizable stake in Lamb Weston, the Idaho-based frozen-potato supplier to chains including McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A.

• Starboard is pushing for faster and deeper cost cuts of $500 million instead of Lamb Weston’s targeted $250 million; a strategic review of its international portfolio, including the potential sale of under-earning operations in the Asia Pacific region; and a 25% target margin for earnings before taxes and depreciation.

• In a letter to Lamb Weston, Starboard said it doesn’t want them to focus solely on targeting a cost savings number, because that often gets lost in reported results. Activist Jana Partners reached a settlement with the company last year to add board members and push for operational changes.