Good morning. Andrew here. Is the TACO trade back? President Trump’s signals that U.S. strikes on Iran could conclude soon appear intended to soothe a market rattled by soaring oil prices. This raises a provocative question: Does the S&P 500 now dictate U.S. foreign policy? Also in today’s mix: Bill Ackman officially files to take his hedge fund public. Details below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
An off-ramp ahead?Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, markets, boardrooms and international capitals have debated when President Trump would signal that he’s had enough of the war. That question has come full circle after a dizzying trading session yesterday, as Trump sent conflicting messages that the fighting could be over “very soon.” Today, global markets are rallying despite continuing strikes, and Trump himself warning of more aggressive action. Businesses are bracing for more fallout. Here’s the latest:
Are the bulls getting ahead of themselves? The world is still grappling with an energy supply crunch that’s pushing up prices for households and businesses. And, Iran has vowed to continue its attacks that have essentially paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reduced output by as much as 6.7 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources. Also worth watching: Wild market swings have walloped hedge fund giants like Steve Cohen’s Point72 and Balyasny Asset Management since war began last week. Resolving the Hormuz bottleneck is key to containing the economic pain. The administration has floated measures including a $20 billion government-backed insurance plan for vessels and possible naval escorts to try to ensure safe passage through the strait. (The administration has temporarily waived some sanctions against Russia and its oil, and Trump said yesterday he “had a very good talk” with President Vladimir Putin.) Details have been scant, though. As doubts for a timely fix grow, analysts see triple-digit oil prices on the horizon again. That could heap pressure on Trump to de-escalate. The war is unpopular with voters, opinion polls show. A prolonged spike in energy prices could drive up inflation and delay the Fed cutting interest rate cuts by months, undercutting the Republicans’ message that they’re focused on the affordability crisis.
Apple now makes a quarter of its iPhones in India. The tech giant ramped up production there by about 53 percent last year, to 55 million from 36 million a year earlier, according to Bloomberg, as it looked to minimize the blow from President Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, a main manufacturing hub. The move comes as U.S. manufacturers bet on where to refocus their supply chain amid the administration’s ever-shifting trade policy. Novo Nordisk drops its feud with Hims & Hers. The Danish drugmaker withdrew its lawsuit against the online retailer that had sold compounded versions of Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy. As part of the deal, Hims & Hers agreed to sell Ozempic and Wegovy, and to stop promoting its copycat versions. Hims & Hers shares rallied on the news. The Alexander brothers are found guilty in a sex-trafficking trial. The three brothers, two of whom were successful high-end real estate agents, were convicted in Manhattan of engaging in a yearslong conspiracy to traffic women and girls for sex. Each could receive a sentence of up to life in prison. Women who testified accused the brothers of drugging and raping them at exclusive parties and on trips in the Hamptons and New York City.
Pershing Square seeks the public markets againBill Ackman is trying to take his hedge fund public once more. His Pershing Square just filed for an I.P.O. in New York, as well as one for an investment fund that he had sought to take public in 2024. It’s the latest effort by the billionaire to turn his financial empire into a durable publicly traded business, as he aims to become the next Warren Buffett. What’s happening: Ackman is seeking what his company called a “combined I.P.O.” of Pershing Square Inc., his $30.7 billion hedge fund, and Pershing Square USA, a closed-end fund that makes big investments in about a dozen North American public companies. More details:
The context: In 2024, Ackman initially sought to raise up to $25 billion for the closed-end fund. The offering was expected to draw strong interest from retail investors, including followers of Ackman’s frequent public pronouncements on social media. But Ackman scaled back the offering before withdrawing it altogether. Ackman has long shown interest in permanent-capital vehicles. Ackman has viewed Pershing Square USA as a big part of his business’ future. Pershing Square has run a similar London-listed fund for several years. And the financier has sought to turn Howard Hughes Holdings, a conglomerate in which he owns a big stake, into a deal machine like what Buffett created at Berkshire Hathaway. Ackman has also laid the groundwork for taking Pershing Square Inc. public. In 2024, he sold a 10 percent stake in the hedge fund at a $10 billion valuation. The question hanging over the Live Nation settlementWall Street and Washington were abuzz yesterday over the Justice Department’s tentative settlement with Live Nation, a week into the high-profile trial. The department’s treatment of the case was widely seen as an indicator of its direction after the departure of Gail Slater as its antitrust chief. For some deal makers, the settlement underscored a new level of political influence on competition enforcement, Lauren Hirsch writes. What’s in the settlement: Under the arrangement’s proposed terms, Live Nation would restrict its use of exclusive contracts but not abolish them all together. It also agreed to offer venues a tech platform that would allow for multiple ticketing systems. It’s far short of the breakup that the Justice Department sought in 2024 when it sued Ticketmaster. Live Nation’s shares rose more than 6 percent yesterday. Justice Department lawyers appeared surprised by the settlement. A federal prosecutor told Judge Arun Subramanian that he had received the term sheet yesterday, at around the same time the judge did. Subramanian appeared to express anger that there had been no discussion of the term sheet, which was signed on Thursday, in a Friday morning meeting at his chambers. “It shows absolute disrespect for the court, the jury and this entire process,” the judge said, calling it “absolutely unacceptable.” Questions about political influence have hung over the Justice Department. They grew prominent after the department’s handling of Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s takeover of Juniper Networks, a case that a former antitrust official at the department said had been usurped by political appointees. Slater left last month amid rumors of a potential Live Nation settlement. Perceptions about political influence have changed how some M.&A. advisers approach antitrust reviews, experts say. Steven Haas, a partner at the law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth, told DealBook that “there is at least a sense among some people that the decisions can be made, or influenced, early on, at more senior levels.” What happens now? The Live Nation settlement still needs approval — and Subramanian said that he expected Michael Rapino, the C.E.O. of Live Nation, and Omeed Assefi, the acting head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division, in court today to discuss it. Lawyers representing some of the 39 states and the District of Columbia involved in the litigation said they would seek a mistrial. In a court filing last night, Live Nation said it would drop its objection to a mistrial in return for court mandated settlement discussions within the next 30 days. If no deal is reached, the company would agree to a trial 30 days after the conclusion of a federal court review of the new Justice Department agreement.
Exclusive: Elizabeth Warren sees “flashing red” signsDemocrats are coalescing around a line of attack before the midterm elections: President Trump is cashing in on his presidency while failing to address affordability. This morning, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is set to deliver the latest salvo along those lines. She will give a speech connecting what she calls a “tsunami of corruption” under the Trump administration to growing danger for the U.S. financial system. “Because there has been such trust in our markets, we can survive some corruption for some period of time,” Warren told Niko Gallogly in an exclusive preview of the speech, “but not this much corruption for very much longer.” Democrats say corruption is a potent line of attack against Trump. In a poll last month, roughly 49 percent of Americans said they would describe Trump as “corrupt.” This year, The Times’s editorial board argued that Trump had used the presidency to make at least $1.4 billion. In Warren’s remarks today, which she will deliver to the Council of Institutional Investors, a group representing pension funds, endowments and union funds, the senator will call out C.E.O.s for securing “special deals” with the Trump administration. They include:
High among Warren’s concerns are the Trump family’s crypto ties, which Fortune recently valued at $3 billion. Last week, Trump took to social media in apparent support of the Clarity Act, a crypto bill that has been languishing in the Senate. Warren told DealBook that the legislation was “affirmatively dangerous for the economy.” The Clarity Act will need Democratic support to pass the Senate. Warren is seeking to put pressure on fellow Democrats to demand the inclusion of an ethics provision — something the Trump administration has called a nonstarter. Why now? Warren said her speech came at a time when the “economic lights are flashing red,” and pointed to growing financial stress on middle-class families and questions about risks in private capital. “Corruption in the system accelerates all of those,” she said. We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.
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