As much of the financial world returned from the long holiday weekend on Tuesday, investors appeared to be in a wait-and-see mode with Trump’s latest deadline for Iran – 8 p.m. EDT tonight – drawing closer.
Oil prices moved around early on Tuesday, with Brent crude initially rising to over $111 per barrel before paring those gains. U.S. WTI crude is hovering around $113/bbl after briefly topping $116.
Equities also got off to a cautious start, with major Asian indexes largely flat, despite a lift in the mood early in the session after a record-breaking quarterly profit forecast from Samsung Electronics. European shares rose after the open.
Major U.S. indexes rose on Monday, partly because traders were heartened by reports of continued discussions about a potential ceasefire. While that optimism faded after Tehran rejected a short-term truce, mediation by Pakistan is reportedly continuing. U.S. stock futures were roughly flat before the bell.
The greenback dipped slightly but remained broadly firm, with the dollar index hovering just under the 100 level after hitting its highest level since May 2025 last week. The yen, on the other hand, continues to languish near the 160-per-dollar level.
Recent macro signals from the U.S. are adding a layer of complexity as traders mull the wider impacts of the Iran energy shock.
The latest survey results from the Institute for Supply Management, released on Monday, showed that U.S. services sector growth slowed in March while prices paid by businesses for inputs rose by the most in more than 13 years – an early sign of rising inflation pressures amid the war. For more on that front, we’ll have to wait for U.S. March CPI inflation figures set for release this Friday.
No matter what that release shows, the global economic outlook appears to be darkening, with the IMF warning on Monday that “all roads” lead to higher prices and slower growth, according to remarks made by its head, Kristalina Georgieva.
Ultimately, the big question – yet again – is whether Trump’s latest deadline will result in the conflict being ramped up or down. We’ll all have to wait and see.
