Markets hate uncertainty but they will have to ride it out as two standoffs continue to shape sentiment—one around peace in Iran and the other over the Federal Reserve, with investors desperate for a positive outcome in both cases.

One impasse revolves around the U.S.-Iran talks. President Donald Trump said in a social-media post Tuesday that he would maintain the American blockade of Iranian ports and extend the cease-fire. But the prospect of negotiations remains murky after Vice President JD Vance put plans to travel to Pakistan for negotiations on hold and two ships came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. 

A second standoff centers on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Although his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday was broadly positive, with Warsh defending the central bank’s independence, there’s a sticking point. Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, refuses to advance Warsh until the Justice Department drops its criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

Extended conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty over the leadership of the Fed hardly feels like a supportive background for stocks. But it might just be a matter of patience—odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normality and Warsh being confirmed before the end of June stand at 73% and 90%, respectively, according to prediction market Polymarket. 

There are more immediate grounds for optimism. Consumer spending was resilient in March, according to Tuesday’s retail-sales data, and first-quarter earnings growth has averaged more than 13% for the companies reporting so far. But with gasoline prices rising and executives pointing to increasing energy costs, inflationary pressures are looming. 

For now, investors seem happy to embrace the uncertainty but it won’t be long before markets become desperate for clarity.

—Adam Clark

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The Iran war, which has jacked up oil prices and injected volatility into stocks, also weighs on the minds of executives. Mentions of Iran and oil on earnings calls have spiked since the beginning of March, FactSet found. Companies are also baking quicker inflation and higher interest rates into forecasts.

• In March and April, S&P 500 company executives mentioned Iran, the Persian Gulf, or the Strait of Hormuz in 49 separate earnings calls or investor conferences, up from 24 in the year before the war started. The pace of the mentions picked up in April.

• Of the 69 calls and talks featuring an S&P 500 executive this month, 57% have mentioned Iran, the Middle East, or war. On Tuesday morning, 12 S&P 500 constituents spoke about the Iran war on quarterly calls. Oil is mentioned in 157 transcripts and filings since March.

• Everyone from Williams-Sonoma, to Nike, to Norfolk Southern has been talking about energy costs. Executives are sometimes talking about the conflict in passing or fielding questions about Iran from analysts. But some companies sound genuinely worried about the war.

• Herbert Nappier, CFO at auto parts distributor Genuine Parts, told investors that it included depressed demand and higher supply prices into its fiscal-year outlook. Equifax said that the war had resulted in higher interest rates and reduced U.S. mortgage activity.

What’s Next: Uncertainty about when conflict will end has muddied forecasts. Barring a longer-term truce, Iran will remain a hot topic on earnings calls, with 45% of the S&P 500 by market-value weight reporting results next week, according to data compiled by Citadel Securities.

—Nate Wolf

Prudential Financial executives have outlined the financial effect of an ongoing issue in the insurer’s Japan affiliate, where it has voluntarily extended a suspension of new sales in the market by another 180 days amid allegations of employee misconduct. The move could shave half a billion dollars off 2026 earnings.

• CEO Andy Sullivan, during a conference call on Tuesday, said they expected a $525 million to $575 million impact on 2026 pre-tax adjusted operating income as a result of the action, which extends an existing 90-day pause. It represents about 8% of Prudential Financial earnings, he said.

• The move would also impact 2027 pre-tax adjusted operating income by $400 million to $450 million, mostly from the loss of new sales during the suspension, which now lasts into November. Prudential Financial said it would withdraw its previous 5% to 8% growth target for earnings per share.

• In early February, Prudential of Japan announced a voluntary 90-day suspension of new sales activity in that market to support its implementation of operational, organizational, and governance changes to address the incidents of misconduct by employees.

• The CEO said the latest projections don’t include the impact of any potential fines that Japan’s Financial Services Agency might impose. When asked about any potential fines during a conference call on Tuesday, Sullivan said they’re prohibited from commenting about details like that.

What’s Next: Japan remains a core market, a spokesperson told Barron’s, but Prudential “will not resume new sales until there is confidence that POJ’s compliance, oversight, and governance environment supports doing so responsibly.”

—Janet H. Cho

President Trump’s nominee to become the next Federal Reserve Chair had his nomination hearing on Tuesday. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh told senators he would run an independent central bank, saying Trump has never asked him to commit to cutting interest rates and that he wouldn’t have agreed to do so.

• But the pledge did little to quiet Democratic skepticism, and the hearing turned as much on Warsh’s personal finances as his policy views. Democrats pressed Warsh extensively on his assets, valued between $131 million and $209 million, which would make him the wealthiest Fed chair in modern history. 

• His ties to hedge fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller drew particular scrutiny. Druckenmiller’s firm paid Warsh $10.2 million for advisory work. Sen. Tina Smith, a Democrat from Minnesota, pressed him on whether those entanglements could compromise his judgment on the very markets and institutions the Fed regulates.

• On policy, Warsh staked out his long-held position that the Fed has become too reliant on its balance sheet and should return to using interest rates as its primary tool. He argued that quantitative easing has disproportionately benefited those with financial assets, while rate cuts reach more Americans.

• He sees a period of structurally higher productivity driven by AI and deregulation ahead. Democrats, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, were unmoved. She called him uniquely ill-suited for the job, pointing to his record of downplaying risk in the subprime mortgage market before 2008.

What’s Next: The committee set a deadline of April 23 for written follow-up questions. No vote date was announced. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term in that role ends May 15.

—Nicole Goodkind

Trump Media & Technology Group CEO Devin Nunes has departed abruptly. Whoever replaces him faces the tricky task of taking forward the company’s nuclear-fusion ambitions alongside its media, cryptocurrency, and exchange-traded fund interests.

• The company, which counts President Trump among its major shareholders, named Kevin McGurn interim CEO effective immediately in an announcement late Tuesday. 

• It didn’t provide a reason for the exit of Nunes, a Trump ally and former member of Congress. Since December 2024, McGurn has served as an advisor to Trump Media.

• Stock performance, under the ticker DJT, in reference to the president’s initials, hasn’t been impressive. Shares are down 63% over the past 12 months with investors seemingly unimpressed by its merger with nuclear fusion start-up TAE Technologies, announced in December.

• Apart from that merger plan, Trump Media also still operates the Truth Social platform—which it has considered spinning off—as well as launching various “America First” branded ETFs. It holds a stockpile of Bitcoin, which was initially valued at more than $2 billion but has fallen sharply in value in recent months as the crypto has been buffeted by several headwinds including the Iran war.

What’s Next: Whoever replaces Nunes on a permanent basis will have to make a coherent strategy for the company’s diverse commercial interests. 

—Adam Clark and Alex Kozul-Wright 

United Airlines is the latest carrier shift because of rising jet fuel costs posted by the Iran war, lowering full-year guidance because of it and announcing plans to curb flights and cut back its schedule for 2026. 

• United actually had a good first quarter, beating expectations with earnings of $1.19 a share and revenue rising 11% to $14.6 billion. Its average fuel cost in the first quarter was $2.78 a gallon. Fuel expenses rose $340 million from the first quarter of 2025.

• The carrier expects capacity in the third and fourth quarters to be flat to up approximately 2%. By contrast, capacity