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In Western countries at least, economic pain from the energy shock remains limited. Petrol is a bit pricier, but most households can still afford to drive. Trucks keep trucking. Planes continue to fly. This comforting picture is deeply misleading,
our analysis finds.
Damage has already been done, and if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, it could cause the fuel system to seize up.
Donald Trump’s next big electoral test comes in the midterms in November. Our forecast is bullish on the Democrats’ odds of taking back the House of Representatives in November. But if the House is looking like a shoo-in for Democrats, a dogfight is unfolding in the Senate.
Read the analysis
and
explore the model
in detail. | 
