This week’s world-famous news haiku competition™ is about how Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has a website from the 1990s and fans say don’t mess with it. Send me your entry — to haiku at cheddar dot com — by noon ET Thursday, for consideration by your Cheddar peers.

Now: News!

Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

News You Need2Know

What’s the stock market up to, eh?*

$SPX ( ▼ 0.41% )   $DJI ( ▼ 1.13% )   $NDX ( ▲ 1.59% )  

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

  $GME ( ▼ 10.14% )   $TD ( ▼ 0.99% )   $AMZN ( ▲ 1.41% )   $DLAKY ( ▼ 0.12% )   $DAL ( ▼ 0.7% )   $IAG.L ( 0.0% )   $KALSHI ( 0.0% )   $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% )   $ADP ( ▼ 1.35% )   $META ( ▲ 0.27% )   $ORCL ( ▲ 4.92% )   $JPM ( ▼ 1.54% )   $SBUX ( ▼ 0.88% )   $COST ( ▲ 0.11% )  

GameStop wants to buy eBay for $56B

In today's episode of "What timeline are we even in?", GameStop $GME ( ▼ 10.14% ) — the 2021 meme-stock darling currently valued at a quaint $12 billion — has decided it wants to swallow eBay, a $46 billion company. CEO Ryan Cohen casually dropped a $56 billion unsolicited offer over the weekend, tossing in a 20% premium on the larger company’s stock price, just to be cheeky.

How does a company with only $9 billion in the bank afford a $56 billion acquisition, you ask? Easy! Just grab a $20 billion debt IOU from TD Bank $TD ( ▼ 0.99% ) and maybe tap some Middle Eastern sovereign-wealth funds for the rest. That’s math.

Cohen’s master plan is to turn this Franken-company into a "legit competitor" to Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 1.41% ) , a company worth (checks notes) $2.6 trillion. His undeniable business synergy? Both companies sell trading cards and collectibles. Watch out, Jeff Bezos — the place where we used to trade in 40 used Xbox games for $4 in store credit is taking over the Internet's digital garage sale, and it plans to authenticate your vintage items right there in the local strip mall.

If this fever dream actually works, Cohen could personally pocket $35 billion in stock. A smaller brick-and-mortar store buying an e-commerce giant with phantom money?

It's late capitalism!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quote of the Day

Airlines slash flights over fuel shortage fears

If you're planning an international getaway this May, you might want to double-check your itinerary. Global travel is facing severe turbulence as airlines have slashed 2 million seats and 12,000 flights from their upcoming schedules.

Since the Iran war, let’s say...kicked off…in late February, jet fuel prices have doubled, and the threat of supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz has thrown the industry into chaos. Gulf carriers like Emirates and Etihad are hastily redrawing their schedules, while heavy hitters like Lufthansa $DLAKY ( ▼ 0.12% ) , Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 0.7% ) and British Airways $IAG.L ( 0.0% ) are cutting capacity to mitigate unprofitable routes and save fuel.

Industry experts are stunned by the unprecedented severity of the crisis. "Jet fuel pricing has always been intermittent, but I don’t think in my time there has ever been the question of shortages," aviation analyst John Strickland told the Financial Times. The risk of stranding aircraft is simply too high. As Strickland noted, "No European airline is going to send a plane off to Asia to mop up demand from the Gulf, and find it’s stuck there without fuel to go back.”

The ripple effects across the globe are undeniable. Air France-KLM Chief Executive Ben Smith told the FT, "The disruption of these flows has created significant imbalances in global travel supply and demand." With airlines actively scrambling to swap out massive jets for smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft just to survive the pinch, the upcoming travel season is shaping up to be a bumpy ride.

Why (almost) everyone loses on prediction markets

Prediction markets like Kalshi $KALSHI ( 0.0% ) and Polymarket $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% ) are booming, promising users the chance to monetize their knowledge. One enthusiastic Kalshi ad featured a user claiming, “I was about to be unable to pay my rent, but I got two years of rent through Kalshi’s predictions.” But the reality for most casual bettors is far bleaker. On Polymarket, a staggering 67% of profits go to just 0.1% of accounts, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Why the massive disparity? Regular users are going up against sophisticated, algorithmic trading firms armed with vast streams of expensive data. Michael Boss, a former professional poker player who places 60 trades a minute, notes that casual users “…have no chance. Systematically.” He adds that sports gambling predictions are particularly lucrative for the websites because, "Sports has the attention of all the sick young men, I guess.”

The prediction market ecosystem effectively relies on less-informed participants. As Jeff Yass, co-founder of trading firm Susquehanna International Group, succinctly put it: “All of sports betting, all of playing poker, all of options trading, is making sure you’re betting against someone you’re smarter than.” 

And sadly, casual traders looking for a quick buck are almost never the smartest ones in the room.