A little more than two weeks ago, the Rays had a 5 ½-game lead in the American League East.
As of this morning, that’s now gone.
The Yankees and Rays are in a virtual tie atop the division with exactly 100 games remaining in Tampa Bay’s season. Obviously, this is trending in the wrong direction, and it’s difficult to feel anything other than gloomy after 10 losses in 13 games.
So if you’re looking for a pep talk, I can’t help you.
But I will say this:
A month ago, we knew the Rays were not as good as their gaudy record.
And today, the Rays are not as bad as the last two weeks have seemed.
The truth is almost always in between the extremes. That’s just the nature of Major League Baseball, where 70 losses will usually get you a spot in the playoffs. There are too many games and there’s too much pitching randomness to have a season like the 1972 Dolphins or the 2019 Lightning.
Back on May 10, I wrote a column for the Sunday print edition with a headline that read, “Sure, it’s great, but is it sustainable?” The point of the story was not to be negative but to look at the team realistically. I broke it down by different facets and examined whether the Rays were playing over their heads.
Now that the tide is going in the opposite direction, let’s revisit those ideas.
Rotation
At the time I wrote the column, the rotation had a 3.13 ERA. Today, that ERA is up to 3.44. Still better than most teams but not the direction you want to be heading. In the column I wrote “there are some indicators that darker days are around the corner,” and we seem to have arrived at that point.
Ryan Pepiot is out for the season, Joe Boyle is back in Triple A and has been brutal, Steven Matz has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen and Jesse Scholtens is on the injured list.
This should be the most worrisome part of the current slump.
Offense
I raved about the unique way the Rays had embraced speed and contact. I pointed out that they led the league in stolen bases and had the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors. My point was those were qualities that do not typically disappear.
“The offense is not as explosive,” I wrote, “but it should be slump-resistant.”
Turns out, I was wrong.
During their 3-10 slide, the Rays have hit .232 and have inexplicably gone 2-for-5 in stolen bases. They’re also averaging 3.6 runs per game. That ain’t good, but I still think this offense is diverse enough to climb out of this hole.
Bullpen
At the time, I pointed out that Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly had stepped up in a big way. That’s still true, for the most part.
As for the rest of the bullpen, I wrote that “a lot of this has the feel of smoke-and-mirrors.” Unfortunately, that was also true for the most part.
Baker, Kelly and Ian Seymour are about the only high-leverage guys you trust these days. The bullpen ERA has gone from 4.11 in early May to 4.56 today.
Close games
When it came to one-run games, the Rays were almost unbeatable for two-plus months. They began the year 9-1 in one-run games, including a ton of comebacks.
Just in the last six games, they’ve had twice as many one-run losses than in April and May combined.
A team can sometimes keep that one-run mojo going an entire season, but it’s typically a very random stat. Especially when your bullpen has occasional blips.
And there you have it. While no one was expecting a 3-10 disaster, a course correction was inevitable.
If it makes you feel any better, the pendulum will undoubtedly start swinging back soon.
