What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

There was a familiar playbook in response to Alphabet's earnings beat and capital expenditure boost overnight - its stock fell and chip stocks rose.

The hyperscaler posted more than 80% growth in its key cloud business, beating the Street, but raised its capex estimates yet again - with AI-linked investments this year now set to top $200 billion.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how the sheer scale of the U.S. K-shaped economy explains its resilience.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where we discuss Alphabet's soaring AI bill and the fresh inflation headache facing the ECB.

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Today's Market Minute

  • The Iranian-aligned Houthis said on Thursday they struck two Saudi oil tankers as part of their naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening to create a second chokepoint on global oil supplies alongside Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Alphabet on Wednesday reported its best-ever quarter of growth for its cloud computing division but faced investor scrutiny amid continued delays to its flagship AI model and a $15 billion increase in capex plans for 2026.
  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday left the door open to the EV ‌maker merging with his other trillion-dollar-plus-valued firm SpaceX, declining to dismiss the possibility and citing growing overlap between the companies.
  • The expansion of the Iran war to the Red Sea has thrown the oil market another dangerous curveball, choking off a fragile recovery in energy flows and threatening a slowdown in the global economy, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
  • Wildfires are becoming a threat to the U.S. power sector. ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire breaks down five reasons why.
 

Magnificent cash burn

Partly on some disquiet about delays in its latest Gemini AI model, as well as the rising cash burn, markets shrugged at the headlines and knocked Alphabet's stock down 3% ahead of today's bell.

Lapping up the higher spend, however, chip-heavy South Korean stocks jumped more than 4% on Thursday. But it wasn't all good news in the chip world either, with Europe's STMicroelectronics dropping 14% first thing on a slight miss in its earnings.

Stateside, Tesla stock also flubbed and lost 4% on Wednesday after it reported its first negative free cash flow in over two years. Intel's earnings are due out later today, a test for the U.S. chipmaking giant as its shares remain up nearly three times so far this year, even after tumbling from a record high in late June.

Wall Street futures were down before the bell on Thursday, while European shares also edged lower as tech stocks there slipped, led by chipmaker STMicro after its below-expectations results.

More broadly, oil climbed further toward $98 per barrel overnight amid the raging conflict in the Gulf and the new shipping hiatus in the Red Sea, as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis targeted Saudi oil tankers and shipping data showed tankers changing course.

The resurgent oil prices are pressuring oil and natural gas futures, as well as interest rate and bond markets in turn. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest in around 17 months on Thursday.

With the European Central Bank meeting today, the inflation impact from spiraling natural gas prices as winter storage starts to get rebuilt will mean the signals are likely to be hawkish.

Futures markets now price two ECB hikes by year-end and two Federal Reserve hikes within nine months. 

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

America's 'mass affluence' is bigger than you think