Washington, DC

1. Saudi nuclear pushback
2. War powers push
3. Rubio meets Lavrov
4. Stock trading blues
5. Crypto concerns
6. College sports bill talks
7. Nominees squeak by

PDB: National Democrats suffer loss in Arizona

CFPB nominee testifies before Senate … Trump to EPA ahead of rollout of ratepayer protection pledge update … Google hit with $1B fine in Europe

Dems to push back on Saudi nuclear deal

The Trump administration has yet to formally notify Congress of its nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, but Democrats are already bracing to block it, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller, Nicholas Wu, and Burgess Everett report. Wednesday’s pact is designed to strengthen US-Saudi relations as President Donald Trump seeks an end to the Iran war, plus funnel billions to the US nuclear industry. But lawmakers in both parties have questions about the details, including the deal’s anticipated lack of International Atomic Energy Agency oversight. “I’m very concerned,” Rep. Greg Meeks, D-N.Y., his party’s top House Foreign Affairs Committee member, told Semafor ahead of the announcement. It likely won’t matter: Democrats would need the support of two-thirds of both chambers to overturn a presidential veto, and most Republicans seem so far on board. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he initially had concerns, but after review, is not “uncomfortable.”

Republicans tested on Iran war support

Democrats are readying more votes that will test Republicans’ backing for Trump’s Iran conflict as it intensifies. The House is likely to vote today on another measure reining in the war, and Democrats are confident they once again have enough GOP support to pass it. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., the lead Democrat sponsor, said she’d “gotten confirmation” that the four Republicans who voted for the last measure would back it. “Hopefully we’ll pick up more,” she said. In the region, attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and US bases are raising concerns about the conflict expanding. Two Saudi ships were struck by Houthi militants, after the Iran-backed group warned they would blockade the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which about 7% of global oil passes. The fighting raised Brent crude prices above $98 for the first time since early June.

— Nicholas Wu and Tom Chivers

Rubio signals no easy end to Ukraine war

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today that “new ideas” would be needed to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine after meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila. Peace talks stalled out before the US-Israel war with Iran, but the meeting — and a call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — signals renewed US engagement. Burgeoning US-Ukraine defense cooperation, as exemplified by a reported drone deal this week, could add pressure to Moscow. At this month’s NATO summit, Trump also agreed to give Ukraine the licenses it needs to make Patriot missile systems — though that could take upwards of a year to have a material impact. Back in Washington, a renewed push on Russia penalties is being complicated by Trump’s ask that Iran be included, as well as opposition from some Democrats.

Stock trading ban could fizzle in Senate

The House cleared a ban on lawmaker stock trading in a 232-198 vote, but the Senate isn’t expected to move on it soon, with just two weeks left in Washington before the August recess. Although there’s bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill for curbing lawmakers’ trading, the issue has become increasingly partisan. Democrats have heavily criticized the GOP-led proposal for not including the executive branch and for allowing members to keep their existing investments. And only about a dozen Democrats in the House, largely from purple districts, supported the legislation yesterday, after the Trump-backed SAVE Act voter ID legislation was attached to it. The impasse has Democrats vowing to act on their own if they flip the House this fall. Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the Administration Committee, railed against the vote as a “remarkable display of cynicism.”

— Nicholas Wu

Senate crypto bill’s got 99 problems

The long-awaited text of the Senate’s bid to overhaul cryptocurrency regulation is already facing headwinds on both sides of the aisle. Democrats including Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., are making clear they’ll oppose the bill unless Republicans strengthen key portions — chief among them, restrictions on the president and other elected officials, which they say state attorneys general should be able to enforce alongside the Justice Department. “For many of us, that is an absolute,” she told Burgess Everett at Semafor’s World of Work event yesterday. Relying solely on DOJ is “wild and unserious and stone-cold crazy,” she added. But it’s not just the left making noise: Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, told Semafor that he shares law enforcement and banks’ concerns with the measure and is “diving in … to see if they can be addressed.” “We’re just getting started,” he added.

— Eleanor Mueller and Lauren Morganbesser

College sports bill in ‘pretty good place’

Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., told Semafor that he and Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., are in a “pretty good place” to clinch a final college sports agreement and get it on the floor. Schmitt is right in the middle of it: He spoke to Southeastern Conference Commissioner Greg Sankey and Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti “a few times” yesterday in an effort to win over the two leagues; Schmitt has also spoken to Trump “several times,” he said. “He’s a big sports fan, and I think he thinks this current situation right now is untenable.” The Missouri Republican is also in talks with House members. Backers will need to tell Senate Majority Leader John Thune soon whether their bill is ready for the floor as crypto negotiators race to cut a deal on their own bill. “Those are the two most likely vehicles that could emerge on the floor in the next two weeks,” Schmitt said. “Maybe both, but maybe just one, based on who’s kind of ready to roll.”

— Burgess Everett

Trump’s nominees catch a break

Trump’s nominees are squeaking through despite threats to their confirmations. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, voted with other Republicans on the Foreign Relations Committee to advance ambassador nominees Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano, after telling Semafor he would block their nominations if the Trump administration did not release PEPFAR funds (he said he received assurances). Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence, Jay Clayton, also advanced out of the Senate Intelligence Committee in a party-line vote on Tuesday, despite earlier expectations that he would pick up some Democratic support; it may take much longer for Clayton to be confirmed by the full Senate. Today, the Senate HELP Committee will vote on Erica Schwartz’s nomination to be CDC director, as well as Deputy Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling to lead his department. We’ll be watching outgoing Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., who grilled Schwartz on independence during her hearing.

Semafor has announced the expanded Global Advisory Board for Silicon Valley & The World — a first-of-its-kind, multiyear initiative bringing together the leaders building transformative technologies with the policymakers shaping how they are deployed. With more than 40 global figures joining the board — including Patrick Collison, Daniel Ek, Jane Fraser, Andy Jassy, Jay Y. Lee, Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, Gina Raimondo, Aravind Srinivas, and Hiroki Totoki, alongside co-chairs Jensen Huang, Divesh Makan, Satya Nadella, Ruth Porat, and Lisa Su — this group reflects the full spectrum of power driving the AI economy. Designed to move the conversation beyond debate, the platform will bring together more than 350 founders, CEOs, investors, and policymakers in November, uniting the leaders with the ability to fund, scale, and implement new ideas.

Democrats crash their own party

What’s the point of a political party? We’ve received a few answers to that question this month. Maine Democrats threw together a mini-primary to replace their Senate nominee. In Wisconsin, where the Democrat most party leaders were comfortable with blew up her campaign, Gov. Tony Evers yanked a former candidate off the bench and endorsed him. “There’s this saying that many of us hate, but it’s so true,” said David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who rebooted his campaign with the Evers endorsement. “Trust the process.” Two summers after Joe Biden’s reluctant abdication, Democrats have discovered it’s handy to make a decision without asking voters first. But that risks conflicting with their argument that any action taken by a party is illegitimate, anti-democratic rigging.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Many Republican senators believe that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is trying to delay a vote on the GOP’s third reconciliation package until after the election in order to avoid a vote-a-rama that could force Republicans to take politically dangerous votes brought up by Democrats.

Playbook: Republicans are holding up a bipartisan deepfakes bill cosponsored by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and backed by Paris Hilton because they don’t want to hand the progressive Democrat a win.

Axios: Black and Latino Democratic leaders are sparring over whether South Carolina or Nevada should vote first in the 2028 presidential primary.

Congress

• Former Barclays CEO Jes Staley will testify behind closed doors before the House Oversight Committee today about