Washington, DC

1. Cabinet meets on Iran
2. Big tariff winner
3. Warren on tour
4. South Carolina stays first
5. VoteVets endorsements

British 10-year bond yields pushed back ▲ above 5% after the UK’s new prime minister signaled a bump in government borrowing.

Trump meets with Cabinet on Iran

President Donald Trump met with members of his Cabinet and top advisers today to discuss whether to “intensify the military assault against Iran,” according to a report in The New York Times. This week Trump has signaled he sees himself at a crossroads in the conflict, telling Axios in an interview yesterday he was close to making a decision on whether to unleash a “massive attack” on Iran, larger than any so far. Over the last two weeks, the US has bombarded Iran, but the regime continues to maintain its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s allies in Yemen, the militant Houthis, have further crippled global energy markets by stymieing tankers using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Before the conflict began, pump prices had fallen below $3. Today they’re an average of $4.10.

Sweeping tariff rhetoric masks growing exemptions

The White House announced yesterday that new tariffs will apply to 99.4% of imported goods from 60 countries, but there are quite a few exceptions. Reuters reports that 471 products were added to the list of tariff exemptions, which already accounted for about 54% of the value of all US imports, according to an analysis by the American Action Forum. The biggest winner of exemptions since last year by far has been tech — specifically, computer hardware and other electronic parts driving the AI buildout. Joseph Politano, author of the Substack Apricitas Economics, has tracked the tech exception through an ongoing analysis of Census data. In May, $58 billion in computer hardware entered the US tariff-free — nearly three times the next three categories combined. So while the White House talks about sweeping levies, the picture is different for at least one key sector.

Warren steps up her campaign surrogate travel

Bernie Sanders is doing his share, but Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has thrown herself even more aggressively into Senate Democrats’ debate over their future direction, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. She’s taking her show on the road this weekend, with an evening stop today for Minnesota Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan’s Senate campaign, followed by a swing through Michigan tomorrow for Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate bid. The Michigan trip is notable because Warren first supported Mallory McMorrow, who later dropped out. El-Sayed is “the remaining candidate in this race who doesn’t take corporate PAC money. He’s fighting to get money out of politics, and has a meaningful agenda to bring down costs for working families. For me, that’s what it’s all about,” Warren told Semafor. Both candidates she’s backing are in tight primaries against more centrist Reps. Angie Craig of Minnesota and Haley Stevens of Michigan.

Democrats want South Carolina to kick off primaries

Democrats are poised to start their 2028 presidential primary in South Carolina, after the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee recommended keeping the state at the front of their calendar. In months of meetings, Democrats were swayed by the argument that Black voters deserved a bigger role in choosing their nominee; Rep. James Clyburn, who had said all year that it wasn’t important for him for South Carolina to vote first, reversed that stance this week, urging Democrats to let the primary kick off in his state. South Carolina primary voters have traditionally been skeptical of left-wing candidates, and welcoming to black candidates; the vote was seen as a boon to potential candidates like Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and former Vice President Kamala Harris.

— David Weigel

Democratic group endorses in red districts

Democrats are pushing into redder territory as they try to expand the House map, with the group VoteVets backing a slate of candidates in Republican-held districts. The Democratic-aligned group, whose political arm supports veterans and candidates with national security backgrounds, is endorsing Chris Gallant in New York, Raymond Smith in North Carolina, Dwayne Romero in Colorado and Kristina Knickerbocker in Ohio. “All four represent different military groups as well as different states,” said Max Rose of VoteVets in a statement. “It’s yet another example of veterans being the most trusted and effective messengers this cycle, and a strong national strategy for Democrats.” The four candidates are running in districts that have been out of reach for Democrats in previous cycles, but Democrats believe they can flip red seats with Trump’s approval ratings remaining low.

— Nicholas Wu

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White House

• White House nuclear negotiators were surprised when President Trump said that joining the Abraham Accords would be a condition of the Saudi nuclear deal, a detail not included in the original announcement. — CNN
• Intelligence officials have warned some top White House aides that they should stop taking car services as Iranians are seeking to kill them. — WSJ

Immigration

• An Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer involved in a fatal shooting in Maine earlier this month was deemed not credible in court last year. — WaPo

Congress

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to attend a ceremony honoring former Sen. Lindsey Graham on Tuesday in the Rotunda.
• Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens in the state’s Democratic Senate primary.

Campaigns and Elections

• A Maine Republican representative is asking Secretary of State Shenna Bellows to probe whether presumptive Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson is eligible to be on the ballot.
• The knives are out for Vice President JD Vance online in what Vance allies believe is a coordinated attack by opponents to keep him out of the 2028 presidential race. — WaPo
• Vance’s star is rising, meanwhile, with Trump. — MSNOW

Health

• A Food and Drug Administration Panel voted today to expand access to an experimental peptide, while blocking another.
• Measles cases hit a new high since the disease was deemed eradicated in the US in 2000, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control.

Economy

• Paramount Skydance agreed to delay its merger with Warner Bros. until June 2027 following a states antitrust suit.
• The 10-year Treasury bond, the most-important interest rate in the world, reached a new 18-month high this week.

World

• China and the Philippines have clashed three times this week in the South China Sea.
• Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack sites in Iran in early July, marking their first known direct retaliation against Tehran. — WSJ

— Top Graham Platner adviser Morris Katz on The Ezra Klein Show.

Semafor DC Team

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Brendan Ruberry, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel