Greetings and happy Friday,

A bright spot in the news: The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index has risen for the first time in four years, indicating moderate economic growth driven by improved credit markets, rising stock prices and increased manufacturing orders. More on that below.

Also in this edition:

• US, Canada push for trade deal before Trump tariffs start
• Bessent expands Treasury buybacks
• CFOs can price working capital as a portfolio
• AICPA issues guidance to improve fraud detection

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US rose 0.2% in July, marking the fourth increase in six months and turning the six-month growth rate positive for the first time in over four years. This suggests moderate economic growth, with business investments in artificial intelligence expected to drive expansion while higher living costs might curb consumer spending. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth of 1.9% for 2026 and 2027.

US and Canadian officials are working to finalize a trade agreement before the US imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, including hockey sticks and wine. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Canada's Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been negotiating in Washington, D.C., and LeBlanc says they have made significant progress.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is moving to expand buybacks of long-dated US government debt as officials seek to ease pressure in the $32 trillion Treasury market after a sharp rise in long-term yields. Treasury said it would at least double planned liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year securities, and Bessent said purchases could exceed $4 billion per issue. The move briefly pushed yields lower, but the rally faded as investors questioned whether buybacks can do more than temporarily improve market functioning while inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, AI-related borrowing and large U.S. deficits continue to pressure long-term debt.

Chief financial officers are taking a portfolio approach to working capital management, assigning different costs of capital to receivables, inventory and payables based on their unique risks and durations. Real-time data from treasury systems and enterprise resource planning platforms is enhancing this strategy, allowing more accurate and dynamic financing decisions.

Bitcoin surged nearly 8%, reaching $69,500, after President Donald Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Payward and Blockchain.com to discuss a more industry-friendly regulatory framework for digital assets. The rally, the largest since March, was driven by the liquidation of more than $1 billion in short positions, and was further bolstered by falling borrowing costs and a move by the Treasury Department to increase buybacks.

The AICPA's Auditing Standards Board has issued Statement on Auditing Standards No. 151, which clarifies and enhances auditors' responsibilities for identifying fraud in financial statements. Effective December 2028, the standard emphasizes professional skepticism, fraud risk assessment and communication with management.