Good afternoon.
Supercharged in the post-pandemic period, the politics around immigration might not have been this hot since the boat arrivals crisis of the Rudd-Gillard era.
One Nation’s surging support is driving both Labor and the Coalition to demonstrate to voters that they are serious about slowing the rate of overseas arrivals.
Any doubt about this may be done away with in the title of Tony Burke’s long-awaited National Press Club address titled “The work of managing the migration program: Who arrives, who stays, who leaves”.
Big fight ahead
More than a few speeches to the Press Club are notable for how little news coverage they attract.
But it’s a long time since an appearance not going ahead has garnered as much attention as Burke’s delayed – and now rescheduled – address on immigration.
The home affairs minister had been due to speak to the Canberra club more than a month ago about the government’s plans to tighten the rules for non-citizens, only to cancel at the 11th hour.
Finally we know he will visit the club tomorrow to explain just how the Albanese government plans to tweak visa rules to ensure Australia hits its target for net overseas migration.
Labor is expected to make it harder for some migrants to stay in the country by limiting visa hopping and ending some appeal rights for people looking to extend their time here.
Burke’s speech will be closely watched by all sides, especially after the PM tried to secure Coalition support for legislative changes in talks last week with the opposition leader, Angus Taylor.
That move failed, setting up a big fight as the government tries to get new legislation through parliament in the weeks ahead.
High stakes
Burke is well known for not speaking from prepared notes, even in lengthy settings like a Press Club address. Instead he prepares by writing by hand a series of structured dot points, from which he elaborates on the spot. That, along with the questions and answers session with the press gallery, will be high stakes for the government tomorrow.
The speech comes less than a day before Anthony Albanese prepares to head to the UN general assembly in New York.
We’re told not to expect serious cuts to overseas arrivals, and instead a focus by Labor on meeting budget forecasts for net overseas migration. The government wants that measure to fall from about 305,000 people to about 225,000 over two years, ending years of higher than expected arrivals, including from international students and working holidaymakers.
One Nation has already announced its plans to cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over three years, and the Coalition wants to tie arrivals to housing availability.
Burke’s speech will attract a packed house. But will Labor’s plan be enough to seize the immigration agenda back from One Nation? The debate is already toxic, and players like Burke and Albanese will want to ensure their changes don’t drag Labor any further into the political mud, or hurt the economy. Already agriculture, aged care and universities are worried about the effect on their business models.
And don’t forget: we’ll bring you all the news and smart analysis on what he says tomorrow.
Photograph: Rounak Amini/AAP
