The current escalation of violence in Yemen has its roots in a civil war that broke out in 2014 between the Yemeni army and the Houthi movement, which champions Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority. A year later, the Houthis – part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, a loose coalition of armed groups that includes Hamas and Hezbollah – toppled the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
Al-Muslimi grew up in a remote mountain village in Yemen, where his family made honey, one of the country’s most lucrative and popular exports. His mother used to tease him because the bees didn’t recognise him after he spent long periods studying away from home – he was the only person in his family who had to wear a beekeeping suit.
Al-Muslimi now writes about how the years-long internecine conflict has had a devastating impact on the honey trade and the farmers who tend Yemeni bees. At least 150,000 people have been killed since 2014, mainly through aerial bombardment by the Saudi-backed coalition that supports the Yemeni government, which has resumed this week. About 4.5 million people – the population of Birmingham and Greater Manchester combined – have already been displaced by fighting over the past decade, while the UN estimates that more than 18.2 million – twice the population of London – are in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
The situation now is “worse than 2015”, says Al-Muslimi, with global attention diverted to crises in Syria, Sudan, and Ukraine and now focused on oil prices and regional consequences. “There is even less willingness to help civilians.”
After the Houthis captured the port city of Mocha, birthplace of the global coffee trade, last week, Al-Muslimi heard local media reports of more than 240 pregnant women ready to give birth without accessible healthcare.
“It’s absolutely nuts,” he says. “This is a country that was already suffering so many things, including indifference.”
How has the conflict escalated in the past week?
It has been plain for months to Yemen-watchers that the Houthis were preparing for a significant offensive, says al-Muslimi. This erupted about a week ago with the militants seizing control of parts of the west coast and gaining a hold over the Bab al-Mandab strait, including the strategic port of Mocha and key islands of Perim, Greater and Lesser Hanish in the 20-mile stretch of water that forms a natural chokepoint on the trade route connecting Asia with Europe.
With government supporters in disarray, the degree of division among anti-Houthi forces is complicating the fight back. The Houthis have achieved what Al-Muslimi calls “the most consequential change in territorial control in Yemen for years”.
Since then, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, including the bombing of a critical east-west oil pipeline. On Wednesday a military spokesperson for the Houthis denied attempting to fly a drone close to the holy city of Mecca, and claimed that Saudi Arabia has carried out as many as 450 airstrikes in Yemen this week in retaliation. The ongoing aggression is driving fears that more Muslim nations could be drawn into the conflict.
What does it mean for global oil supply?
If the Houthis were to close the Bab al-Mandab strait, vessels would be forced to reroute all the way around the southern tip of Africa. The consequences for the global economy could be dire, particularly when taken along with the ongoing blockade of Hormuz.
With Iran and its Houthi allies controlling potentially a third of energy trade globally, “it’s more dangerous than a nuclear bomb,” says Al-Muslimi bluntly, “especially at a time when the world still depends massively on this type of energy”.
Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline – which is now closed for repairs and has been crucial for moving oil from the strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu – will add further pressure to global supplies.
Al-Muslimi advises caution over Houthi claims that they don’t intend to impose transit fees on vessels passing through Bab al-Mandab. The UN security council has seen evidence that, since the militants started attacks on Red Sea shipping in 2023, in response to Israel’s decimation of Gaza, the Houthis have been extracting informal payments from some shipping agencies in return for safe passage.
Meanwhile, Saudi anger with Iran for assisting Houthi attacks saw the cancellation of a meeting with Gulf states about the future of the strait of Hormuz on Monday. Reports in the early hours today that Saudi Arabia may be offering more crude cargoes through Oman saw the price of Brent crude drop to $104.59 a barrel after hitting $108 earlier this week. But for perspective, it was trading at $80 a barrel in early July.
This comes as the average price of diesel in the US hit $6 per gallon for the first time last week, with the Iran war, combined with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, continuing to squeeze supply.
What does it mean for the region?
The UN security council held an emergency meeting in New York on Tuesday to discuss the escalating violence in Yemen and threats to maritime security, with members urging maximum restraint to avoid the situation devolving into a wider regional war. The conflict is the first test of a mutual defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, announced in August – but Saudi has yet to publicly call on either for assistance.
Meanwhile, Al-Muslimi says the US, a close Saudi ally, faces a dilemma. The States reached a truce with the Houthis in May 2025, after conducting airstrikes against the group after attacks on Red Sea shipping. “The existing truce gives both sides reasons for restraint,” he says. “For Trump, preserving that arrangement helps keep the US away from another costly Middle Eastern military confrontation while it remains engaged in the strait of Hormuz. The Houthis have equally strong incentives to not be drawn into conflict with the US, which caused them serious damage in the 2025 bombing campaign.”
Yesterday the Guardian confirmed that officials from the US had met Houthi leaders over the weekend in Oman, where they received assurances that the ceasefire still held and that the movement had no intention of attacking US shipping in the Red Sea. While Trump condemned the Houthi advance for threatening freedom of navigation, he has far rejected any military response in support of Riyadh.
Al-Muslimi calls for a more coherent international approach to his country, which he considers one of the least understood in the region. Yemen analysts have frequently criticised the US and allies for approaching Yemen’s challenges with a focus on security rather than diplomacy or development, while internal instability has been exploited by larger regional powers to fight their own proxy battles.
Most importantly, he says: “While this new international dimension of Yemen’s war makes the country strategically more important to the world, it should not overshadow the plight of ordinary Yemenis”.
Yemen refugees arrive in Djibouti as intensified fighting drives displacement. Photograph: International Organization for Migration/Reuters
