Israel Takes Stock of October 7 and Netanyahu |
By Ivana Saric
Digital Editor, Council on Foreign Relations |
Three years since the October 7 attacks that set off the Israel-Hamas war, Israel is preparing for an election that could see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secure an unprecedented seventh term.
Within the country, the question of who bears responsibility for security failures that led to Hamas breaching the border remains contested. The October 27 election will “provide a shorter-term verdict,” CFR’s Elliott Abrams wrote in a new expert take.
The race is largely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, and polls indicate that no party has a clear majority. Recent news reports suggested that Netanyahu ignored warnings from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates about an impending attack days before October 7. Netanyahu has denied that he was warned, and has blocked an independent inquiry into the attacks.
“It will be up to history to find a more widely accepted judgment,” Abrams wrote.
Israel has been changed by the Hamas attacks in which approximately 1,200 people in Israel were killed and another 251 taken hostage, as well as Israel’s actions in Gaza that reportedly killed more than 70,000 Palestinians.
The country’s security doctrine is different now: “The idea of deterrence has largely been abandoned when it comes to threats like Hamas and Hezbollah,” Abrams said. Israel has pursued efforts to weaken Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as diminish Iran’s nuclear program and set the circumstances for regime change in Syria. These moves have all bolstered Israel’s security, Abrams argued.
But the years since October 7 have also brought sobering lessons. Israel has learned that its demand to “‘defend itself by itself’ is not achievable.” The country has needed U.S. and others’ assistance to target and defend itself from Iran, and its military is still reliant on a supply of weapons and ammunition manufactured abroad.
Israel’s actions in the Palestinian territories, particularly its campaign in Gaza, have brought public criticism abroad. “It is impossible to know how far this criticism will turn into delays or denials of military cooperation or into economic boycotts,” Abrams noted, but “it has been visible in several European elections and is also playing a part in U.S. contests.”
Netanyahu’s electoral defeat would not change Israel’s geopolitical circumstances, Abrams wrote. Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon remain “consensus issues” within Israel, suggesting that policy toward them won’t change significantly anytime soon.
Read Abrams’ full analysis on CFR.org. The Daily Brief will continue bringing you the latest on the Israeli election and the factors influencing it in the weeks to come. |
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So much news, so little time. Here’s a roundup of some of the best pieces the Daily Brief team has read, listened to, and enjoyed in recent days. -
“Return to Conflict in Tigray,” this week’s episode of the Warcast podcast featuring CFR’s Michelle Gavin, who discussed escalating fighting in northern Ethiopia and the risk of a wider conflict in the Horn of Africa. For more on this subject, check out this recent New Yorker column, “Fighting in Ethiopia Is Part of a Far Bigger Conflict,” by CFR’s Ishaan Tharoor.
- “What the Data Center Boom Looks Like From the Sky,” by C.J. Robinson for the New York Times, which offers bird’s-eye views of the artificial intelligence (AI) race across America.
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“China’s Long Twilight,” by CFR’s Carl Minzner for Foreign Affairs, argues that China is entering a period of demographic decline that, coupled with its political paralysis, provides a warning to the United States and others about political erosion.
- “Back to School, in Gaza,” by Mosab Abu Toha for the New Yorker, describes Israel’s destruction of schools in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas war and the conditions that schoolchildren now face.
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This weekend, the Trump administration launched a task force to help the government coordinate with the tech industry and others as the United States competes in the global AI race. Its success depends on avoiding five potential traps, CFR’s Vinh Nguyen wrote in a new expert take, including allowing AI companies to set safety standards without outside input, failing to establish legitimacy in the eyes of the public and U.S. allies, and failing to build clear protocols for “major national security or cybersecurity AI incidents.”
“Whoever sets the safety standards sets the terms of debate. No one will trust the six AI companies if they are left to define what safety means, what to measure, and who judges their own safety specifications. Left to themselves, these companies will likely rely on three narrow safety measures: whether AI can develop itself automatically; how capable its cyber, bioscience, and chemical capabilities are; and how controllable and aligned their systems are.”
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Every day, the Daily Brief brings you a curated list of the top stories from around the world. |
- Mali Says It Recaptured Rebel Stronghold. The country’s transitional government said that its military—backed by Russia—retook the northern city of Kidal, which has been held by armed rebels linked to al-Qaida for several months.
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Kenya Conducts Contact Tracing After First Ebola Case. Ten people have been quarantined so far, according to the country’s health minister. The now-deceased Ebola patient had been ill for weeks before traveling by land and air to Nairobi, raising questions about how to effectively conduct contact tracing.
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Reuters: Mexico to Prohibit Dual Citizens From Becoming President. The reform, which was supported by lawmakers in the ruling Morena party and President Claudia Sheinbaum, prevents dual citizens from holding the presidency, state governorships, or becoming the mayor of Mexico City. Critics say the move quashes opposition, while Sheinbaum has said it will help prevent foreign interference into Mexican politics.
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Reuters: Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan Leads Informal Poll for Next UN Chief. A secret straw poll held today placed the former Costa Rican vice president slightly ahead of other candidates to become the next UN secretary-general. It was the fifth such informal poll; they are held before the official vote to see whether a clear candidate has emerged.
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Okinawa Governor Denounces U.S. Marine Accused of Killing Local Woman, Demands Reforms. Gov. Genta Koja, who took office last week, gave a strongly worded speech expressing outrage about the alleged killing and demanded that Japan exercise more control over U.S. bases. Okinawa hosts 70 percent of the roughly 50,000 U.S. service members in the country; residents have long complained about pollution and crime.
- Sri Lanka’s Ex-First Lady Detained on Corruption Charges. Shiranthi Rajapaksa, the wife of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, was arrested today for allegedly misusing charity funds while her husband was in office.
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Former German Spy Chief Accused of Espionage and Attempted Treason. August Hanning, the head of the German spy agency from 1998 to 2005, is accused of using classified information for his own profit. Prosecutors accuse him of once using such information to offer analysis to someone at a foreign intelligence agency.
- Rubio Urges Europe Toward ‘Unapologetic’ Nationalism in Akropolis Speech. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio—currently on a tour of NATO allies, with stops in Iceland, Greece, and Portugal—called for Western countries to proclaim their nationalism in a speech in Athens today, to ensure the West remains “at the head of the world.”
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Houthis Attack Saudi Arabia Airports. Saudi government officials said that three people were killed in strikes on Abha and Riyadh’s international airports and dozens of others were wounded, without saying who was responsible. The Houthis earlier today claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi airports, Aden airport in Yemen, and a military facility.
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Host: Ivana Saric
Editor: Xian Chiang Waren
Email Operations: Eric Rojas
Editorial Director, News: Phil McCausland
Editor-at-Large: Robert McMahon
Chief Digital Content Officer: Millie Tran |
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